Modeling and Simulation of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation in Shanghai during COVID-19

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0320

Abstract

Abstract: Modeling and simulating on the allocation of emergency medical resources in Shanghai with COVID-19 is carried out. Based on the SEIR model of infectious diseases, combined with the process of outpatients visiting and inpatients treatment, a SEIOWHR(susceptible-exposed-infected-outpatients- waiting to hospitalized-hospitalized-removed) system dynamics model is established. If the Wuhan epidemic occurred in Shanghai, based on the model, the amount of emergency medical resources needed, the gap time of medical resources and the disease progression of patients who are waiting to hospitalized under the different supply of medical resources is simulated, and the key factors in the allocation of medical resources at a major epidemic are found. It is recommended that the early planning and dynamic adjustment of emergency medical resources should be strengthened based on the epidemic trend and disease progression of patients, and the accurate diagnosis rate is needed to be improved to respond the infectious diseases effectively.

Key words: system dynamics, COVID-19, emergency medical resources, modeling and simulation

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Fan Changjia, Du Yanqiu, Liang Di, Hu Kai, Huang Jiayan. Modeling and Simulation of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation in Shanghai during COVID-19[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(1): 93-103.

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