Simulation Research on COVID-19 Transmission and Control Measures Based on SEIiRD Model

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0912

Abstract

Abstract:

With the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world, the data and transmission mechanism are analyzed. The SEI_iRD model is constructed based on the existing SEIRD model, and the infected population is divided into asymptomatic infections, mild infections, severe infections and critical infections. The impact of the transmission rate of different infected people on the development of the epidemic was analyzed. Simulation experiments were carried out on the basis of fitting real data, and it was found that the main infected populations that affected the discovery of the epidemic were asymptomatic and mildly infected. On this basis, the transmission rate of different asymptomatic and mildly infected people was further analyzed. The impact of different intervention times on the number of infections and deaths was simulated. Results show that the model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 and provide decision-making support to the departments to implement corresponding epidemic prevention and control strategies.

Key words: SEI_iRD model, epidemic spread, COVID-19, prevention and control measures, spread dynamics

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Jing Wang, Ying Dong. Simulation Research on COVID-19 Transmission and Control Measures Based on SEI_iRD Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(7): 1532-1546.

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参数	描述	取值
1/a	疾病平均潜伏期	5
β₀	无症状感染者单日传染速率	0~1
β₁	轻症感染者单日传染速率	0~1
β₂	重症感染者单日传染速率	0~1
β₃	危重症感染者单日传染速率	0~1
x₁	轻度感染平均持续时间	6
x₂	重度感染平均持续时间	6
x₃	危重度感染平均持续时间	8
x₄	无症状感染平均持续时间	6
h₁	轻度感染者平均比例	8 070
h₂/%	重度感染者平均比例	15
h₃/%	危重度感染者平均比例	5
h₄/%	无症状感染者平均比例	30
μ/%	危重症感染者平均死亡率	40
n/%	疾病平均病死率	2

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