Research on Campus Epidemic Evolution Based on Multi-scale Modeling and Simulation in Microscopic & Microscopic View

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-0750

Abstract

Abstract:

High density of population leads to high possibility of cross-infection. It is necessary to focus on campus epidemic prevention and control. Basing on existing studies in macroscopic or microscopic view, this paper proposed a multi-scale means to analyze a short-term evolution of Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on campus and estimated the efficiency of prevention strategies. Macroscopic model was based on the susceptible-exposed-infections-recovered(SEIR) model, which exported the time curve of the number of asymptomatic patients and symptomatic patients. Microscopic model combined discrete event simulation modeling and agent-based modeling to simulate the behavior of campus students and the state evolution caused by infectious disease in real-world, and simulated propagation process of COVID-19 on campus, which outputted the population in infection. Through experimental verification of case study, proving the efficiency of peak stagger to school and taking routine nuclear acid testing then isolating patients. Distinguish key parameters by taking sensitivity analysis. The simulation results can provide a reference for the school management to optimize epidemic prevention measures.

Key words: campus epidemic prevention, corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), modeling & simulation, macroscopic model, microscopic model, multi-scale modeling, agent based, susceptible-exposed-infections-recovered(SEIR) model

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Hu Mingwei, Yang Wenjie. Research on Campus Epidemic Evolution Based on Multi-scale Modeling and Simulation in Microscopic & Microscopic View[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(1): 170-182.

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References 18

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参数名称	数值
校园总人口	2 500
接触无症状患者每分钟感染率	6×10^-4
接触有症状患者每分钟感染率	1×10^-3
潜伏期/d	3~7

天数	对照组		错峰上学		核酸检测
天数	无症状患者数量	有症状患者数量	无症状患者数量	有症状患者数量	无症状患者数量	有症状患者数量
1	1	0	1	0	1	0
2	3	0	1	0	2	0
3	6	1	4	1	3	1
4	10	2	6	1	4	2
5	20	4	8	2	2	1
6	35	8	10	5	1	0
7	89	22	16	6	1	0

参数名称	数值
校园易感人群(人)	2 499
接触无症状患者的初始感染率	0.045
接触有症状患者的初始感染率	0.045
潜伏期/d	3~7
病程/d	14
错峰上学每人日均接触人数初始值(人)	4
对照组每人日均接触人数初始值(人)	10
反应滞后期/h	1
核酸检测灵敏度/%	85

参数名称	数值
错峰上学组每人日均接触人数	17
对照组每人日均接触人数	26
接触无症状患者的感染率	0.019
接触有症状患者的感染率	0.056
错峰上学最优目标函数值	0.70
对照组最优目标函数值	0.86

天数/d	患者数量
	对照组		错峰上学		核酸检测
	无症状	有症状	无症状	有症状	无症状	有症状
1	1	0	1	0	1	0
2	3	1	2	1	2	0
3	5	1	3	1	3	1
4	10	3	4	2	2	1
5	20	6	7	3	1	0
6	40	12	10	4	1	0
7	78	23	17	7	1	0