Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-0485

Abstract

Abstract:

Existing infection risk assessment methods mostly evaluate infection probability through mathematical models or simulation, but they lack analysis of the relationship between air circulation and individual infection probability. This study proposed a risk prediction model for infectious disease transmission based on indoor air circulation. At the microscopic scale, the space was discretized into grid points.By integrating CFD numerical simulation, the entire process of virus droplet release, transmission, and action was fully simulated. The simulation results show that in an obstacle-free room, the error between the total indoor viral load predicted by the model under windless and low wind speed conditions and the CFD simulation values remains within 10%. In the presence of obstacles and under different ventilation conditions, the error of the maximum total viral load between the model simulation and CFD simulation remains around 15%. The results of the model in predicting infection risks are basically consistent with the actual condition and can provide a reference for epidemic prevention and control work to a certain extent.

Key words: COVID-19, infection risk prediction, microscopic model, CFD simulation, airborne transmission

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Fang Zhiming, Yuan Shengdong, Huang Ge, Yang Jingqian, Huang Zhongyi. Microsimulation of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Virus Release, Transmission, and Action[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2025, 37(10): 2533-2544.

Figures/Tables 17

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Table 1

Distribution of droplet counts in surrounding grid points

格点	相对位置	咳嗽情况下占比/%	说话情况下占比/%
P0	$(i, j)$	19.18	40.18
P1	$(i - 3, j - 1)$	0.86	/
P2	$(i - 2, j - 1)$	1.11	/
P3	$(i - 1, j - 1)$	/	0.46
P4	$(i - 3, j)$	5.29	/
P5	$(i - 2, j)$	16.46	/
P6	$(i - 1, j)$	55.39	58.96
P7	$(i - 3, j + 1)$	0.68	/
P8	$(i - 2, j + 1)$	1.04	/
P9	$(i - 1, j + 1)$	/	0.40

Table 1

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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Table 2

Fig. 13

Table 3

Fig. 14

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房间类型	时间/s	无风			0.5 m/s			1.0 m/s			1.5 m/s
房间类型	时间/s	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%	Fluent仿真	模型仿真	误差/%
无障碍物	5	1 798	1 687	6.2	1 800	1 788	0.6	1 799	1 677	6.8	1 669	1 529	8.3
	10	1 600	1 470	8.1	1 519	1 371	9.7	703	952	35.4	743	513	30.8
	15	1 433	1 343	6.2	942	1 039	10.3	512	445	13.0	327	97	70.3
障碍物	5	1 998	1 754	12.2	1 869	1 810	3.1	1 847	1 772	4.0	1 850	1 734	6.3
	10	1 786	1 500	16.1	1 652	1 470	11.0	1 645	1 488	9.5	1 651	1 426	13.6
	15	1 600	1 354	15.3	1 574	1 351	14.1	1 574	1 357	13.7	1 444	1 293	10.4
教室	5	1 836	1 749	4.7	1 695	1 851	9.2	1 725	1 823	5.7	1 759	1 776	1.0
	10	1 401	1 505	7.5	1 401	1 543	10.2	1 417	1 509	6.5	1 443	1 460	1.2
	15	1 224	1 365	11.5	1 214	1 369	12.8	1 249	1 273	2.0	1 037	903	12.9
会议室	5	1 799	1 749	2.7	1 693	1 851	9.4	1 716	1 823	6.3	1 739	1 776	2.1
	10	1 590	1 505	5.3	1 491	1 543	3.5	1 488	1 514	1.8	1 576	1 515	3.8
	15	1 400	1 365	2.5	1 395	1 371	1.7	1 400	1 362	2.7	1 235	1 253	1.5

桌	到达时间	离开时间
A	12:01	13:23
B	11:37	12:54
C	12:03	13:18
D	11:34	13:18
E	13:00	14:19