涉煤生产对区域水资源承载系统的影响仿真

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201812035

系统仿真学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (12): 4770-4777.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201812035

涉煤生产对区域水资源承载系统的影响仿真

陈亚林¹, 桂旺胜², 董前进³, 叶春⁴, 吴昊天³

1.南京财经大学,江苏南京 210023;
2.中能智库,北京 100176;
3.武汉大学,湖北武汉 430074;
4.中国能源研究会,北京 100045

收稿日期:2017-01-03 修回日期:2017-05-22 出版日期:2018-12-10 发布日期:2019-01-03
作者简介:陈亚林(1978-),女,贵州,侗族,博士,副教授,研究方向为基于博弈论的政策建模与仿真; 桂旺胜(1973-),男,安徽桐城,博士,研究方向为水资源约束下的能源系统规划与仿真。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401309)

Simulation of Influence of Coal-based Industry on Water Resources Bearing System

Chen Yalin¹, Gui Wang sheng², Dong Qianjin³, Ye Chun⁴, Wu Haotian³

1. Nanjing University of Finances and Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. China Energy Think-tank, Beijing 100176, China;
3. Wuhan University, Wuhan 430074, China;
4. China Energy Research Society, Beijing 100045, China

Received:2017-01-03 Revised:2017-05-22 Online:2018-12-10 Published:2019-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 富煤地区的煤炭开发利用对当地水资源的可持续发展带来压力。引入系统动力学,综合考虑区域的农业、煤炭开发利用、居民生活以及生态保护的需水,建立水资源承载互动仿真模型;以宁夏回族自治区为例,基于两种规划情景,对当地水资源承载系统的动态变化过程进行仿真;仿真结果说明:以市场为基础的资源配置方式下,区域水资源实现可持续发展,但区域均衡发展受到影响。如按照政府主导的资源规划发展,区域水资源供需缺口将进一步扩大;据此,提出相关规划建议。

关键词: 煤炭, 规划, 水资源承载系统, 系统动力学, 仿真

Abstract: The contradictory spatial distribution between China's coal resources and water resources has become the stress to sustainable development of regional ecological environment and social economy. The paper presents interactive simulation model of regional water resources bearing system based on System Dynamics; and then Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example, the dynamic process of local water bearing system was simulated under different scenarios of planning. The simulation results show that regional sustainable development of water resources would be achieved if the resources are allocated based on the market, while the gap between supply and demand of regional water resources would be further expanded by the industry planning. Accordingly, suggestions are presented for future planning of regional coal development and utilization.

Key words: coal, planning, water resource bearing system, system dynamics, simulation

中图分类号:

TP391.9

陈亚林, 桂旺胜, 董前进, 叶春, 吴昊天. 涉煤生产对区域水资源承载系统的影响仿真[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(12): 4770-4777.

Chen Yalin, Gui Wang sheng, Dong Qianjin, Ye Chun, Wu Haotian. Simulation of Influence of Coal-based Industry on Water Resources Bearing System[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(12): 4770-4777.

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涉煤生产对区域水资源承载系统的影响仿真

Simulation of Influence of Coal-based Industry on Water Resources Bearing System

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