系统仿真学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 1907-1920.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.25-0269

• 专栏:数字试验与测试技术发展与展望 • 上一篇    

基于多尺度仿真的长贮产品贮存寿命评估方法综述

李宏民1,2, 韩笑2, 黄硕2, 张生鹏1,2, 荣双龙2, 李昊2, 钱诚1   

  1. 1.北京航空航天大学 可靠性与系统工程学院,北京 100191
    2.航天科工防御技术研究试验中心,北京 100854
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-08 修回日期:2025-07-02 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-08-26
  • 通讯作者: 钱诚
  • 第一作者简介:李宏民(1976-),男,研究员,博士生,研究方向为质量与可靠性、数字化试验。

Storage Life Assessment Methods for Long-term Storage Products Based on Multi-scale Simulation: A Review

Li Hongmin1,2, Han Xiao2, Huang Shuo2, Zhang Shengpeng1,2, Rong Shuanglong2, Li Hao2, Qian Cheng1   

  1. 1.School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
    2.Aerospace Science & Industry Defense Technology Research and Test Center, Beijing 100854, China
  • Received:2025-04-08 Revised:2025-07-02 Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-08-26
  • Contact: Qian Cheng

摘要:

传统基于试验的长贮产品寿命评估方法存在耗时长、成本高、预测准确性低等缺陷,制约了长贮产品贮存寿命评估的实际应用效果。随着数字化仿真技术的发展,基于故障物理的仿真分析方法能够精准表征产品老化规律,成为贮存寿命评估领域的研究热点。分析了长贮产品的多尺度特征和典型贮存失效模式及失效机理;讨论了非金属材料、金属材料、元器件等基础产品贮存失效的多尺度建模与仿真分析方法;按照产品类别梳理了整机产品贮存寿命评估方法;提出了长贮产品贮存寿命评估未来发展方向,进一步丰富和完善了由微观损伤到宏观失效的贮存寿命仿真整体技术路线。

关键词: 多尺度仿真, 贮存失效, 老化规律仿真, 贮存寿命预测

Abstract:

Traditional experiment-based life assessment methods for long-term storage products suffer from drawbacks such as prolonged duration, high cost, and low prediction accuracy, greatly limiting the effectiveness of storage life assessment in practical applications. With the advancement of digital simulation technology, simulation analysis methods based on the physics of failure (PoF) have emerged as a research hotspot in the field of storage life assessment, as they can accurately characterize product aging behavior. The multi-scale characteristics of long-term storage products and their typical storage failure modes and mechanisms were analyzed. Multi-scale modeling and simulation analysis methods for storage failures of fundamental products were discussed, including non-metallic materials, metallic materials, and electronic components. Storage life assessment methods for complete equipment were reviewed by product categories. Future development directions for the storage life assessment of long-term storage products were proposed. This paper further enriched and refined the overall technical roadmap for storage life simulation from microscopic damage to macroscopic failure.

Key words: multi-scale simulation, storage failure, aging behavior simulation, storage life prediction

中图分类号: