Long-term Resilience Simulation on Low-carbon Urban Grid Based on Evolutionary Game

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-FZ0917

Abstract

Abstract:

Because of the more frequent extreme disasters, the resilience of urban grid becomes more important. In the background of carbon neutralization policy, the decarbonization transition of urban grid also affects the development of grid resilience. An evolutionary game is used to simulate the resilience evolution of low-carbon urban grid and the evolution model is constructed. The decision to install photovoltaic and energy storage system for residents and to upgrade the grid for resilience is considered in the model and the stability conditions of equilibriums of the evolutionary game are analyzed. The resilience evolution simulation model considering disaster stochasticity is constructed and verified. The results can provide decision reference for the low-carbon urban grid resilience development.

Key words: low-carbon grid, resilience, photovoltaic and battery energy storage system, evolutionary game, evolutionarily stable strategy

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Zhengda Cui, Weiqiang Yao, Qin Xu, Chen Fang, Ying Chen. Long-term Resilience Simulation on Low-carbon Urban Grid Based on Evolutionary Game[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(12): 2595-2604.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Table 1

Stability conditions of equilibrium under circumstance 1

平衡点	det J	tr J	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 1$ $β 2$	$β 1$ + $β 2$	$β 1$ <0, $β 2$ <0
(0, 1)	- $β 2$ $β 3$	- $β 2$ + $β 3$	$β 2$ >0, $β 3$ <0
(1, 0)	$C U P$ $β 1$	- $C U P$ - $β 1$	$β 1$ >0
(1, 1)	- $C U P$ $β 3$	- $C U P$ - $β 3$	无法稳定

Table 1

Table 2

Stability conditions of equilibrium under circumstance 2

平衡点	det J	tr J	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 2$ $β 4$	$β 2$ + $β 4$	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ <0
(0, 1)	- $β 2$ $β 3$	- $β 2$ + $β 3$	$β 2$ >0, $β 3$ <0
(1, 0)	- $β 4$ $β 5$	- $β 4$ + $β 5$	$β 4$ >0, $β 5$ <0
(1, 1)	$β 3$ $β 5$	- $β 3$ - $β 5$	$β 3$ >0, $β 5$ >0

Table 2

Table 3

Stability conditions of equilibrium under circumstance 3

平衡点	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ <0
(0, 1)	$β 2$ >0, $β 4$ <0
(1, 0)	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ >0
(1, 1)	$β 2$ >0, $β 4$ >0

Table 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

References 25

1	钟海旺, 张广伦, 程通, 等. 美国得州2021年极寒天气停电事故分析及启示[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(6): 1-9.
	Zhong Haiwang, Zhang Guanglun, Cheng Tong, et al. Analysis and Enlightenment of Extremely Cold Weather Power Outage in Texas, U.S. in 2021[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(6): 1-9.
2	曾辉, 孙峰, 李铁, 等. 澳大利亚"9·28"大停电事故分析及对中国启示[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(13): 1-6.
	Zeng Hui, Sun Feng, Li Tie, et al. Analysis of "9·28" Blackout in South Australia and Its Enlightenment to China[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(13): 1-6.
3	Francis R, Bekera B. A Metric and Frameworks for Resilience Analysis of Engineered and Infrastructure Systems[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety(S1879-0836), 2014, 121: 90-103.
4	高海翔, 陈颖, 黄少伟, 等. 配电网韧性及其相关研究进展[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2015, 39(23): 1-8.
	Gao Haixiang, Chen Ying, Huang Shaowei, et al. Distribution Systems Resilience: an Overview of Research Progress[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2015, 39(23): 1-8.
5	王灿, 张雅欣. 碳中和愿景的实现路径与政策体系[J]. 中国环境管理, 2020, 12(6): 58-64.
	Wang Can, Zhang Yaxin. Implementation Pathway and Policy System of Carbon Neutrality Vision[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2020, 12(6): 58-64.
6	Zhang B, Dehghanian P, Kezunovic M. Optimal Allocation of PV Generation and Battery Storage for Enhanced Resilience[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid(S1949-3053), 2019, 10(1): 535-545.
7	鲁宗相, 李昊, 乔颖. 从灵活性平衡视角的高比例可再生能源电力系统形态演化分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2021, 4(1): 12-18.
	Lu Zongxiang, Li Hao, Qiao Ying. Morphological Evolution of Power Systems with High Share of Renewable Energy Generations from the Perspective of Flexibility Balance[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2021, 4(1): 12-18.
8	梅生伟, 龚媛, 刘锋. 三代电网演化模型及特性分析[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2014, 34(7): 1003-1012.
	Mei Shengwei, Gong Yuan, Liu Feng. The Evolution Model of Three-Generation Power Systems and Characteristic Analysis[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2014, 34(7): 1003-1012.
9	谢宇翔, 张雪敏, 罗金山, 等. 新能源大规模接入下的未来电力系统演化模型[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2018, 38(2): 421-430.
	Xie Yuxiang, Zhang Xuemin, Luo Jinshan, et al. Evolution Model for Future Power System under Massive Penetration of Renewable Energy[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2018, 38(2): 421-430.
10	鲁宗相, 黄瀚, 单葆国, 等. 高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2017, 41(9): 12-18.
	Lu Zongxiang, Huang Han, Shan Baoguo, et al. Morphological Evolution Model and Power Forecasting Prospect of Future Electric Power Systems with High Proportion of Renewable Energy[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(9): 12-18.
11	龚媛, 梅生伟, 张雪敏, 等. 考虑电力系统规划的OPA模型及自组织临界特性分析[J]. 电网技术, 2014, 38(8): 2021-2028.
	Gong Yuan, Mei Shengwei, Zhang Xuemin, et al. An Improved OPA Model Considering Planning and Self-organized Criticality Analysis[J]. Power System Technology, 2014, 38(8): 2021-2028.
12	阮前途, 梅生伟, 黄兴德, 等. 低碳城市电网韧性提升挑战与展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42(8): 2819-2830.
	Ruan Qiantu, Mei Shengwei, Huang Xingde, et al. Challenges and Research Prospects of Resilience Enhancement of Low-carbon Power Grid[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42(8): 2819-2830.
13	John Maynard Smith. Evolution and the Theory of Games[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
14	卢强, 陈来军, 梅生伟. 博弈论在电力系统中典型应用及若干展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2014, 34(29): 5009-5017.
	Lu Qiang, Chen Laijun, Mei Shengwei. Typical Applications and Prospects of Game Theory in Power System[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2014, 34(29): 5009-5017.
15	Taylor P D, Jonker L B. Evolutionarily Stable Strategies and Game Dynamics[J]. Mathematical Biosciences(S0025-5564), 1978, 40(1/2): 145-156.
16	高洁, 盛昭瀚. 演化博弈论及其在电力市场中的应用[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2003, 27(18): 18-21.
	Gao Jie, Sheng Shaohan. Elementary Groping for Evolutionary Game Theory and Its Application in Electricity Market[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2003, 27(18): 18-21.
17	Li Q, Li M C, Lü L, et al. A New Prediction Model of Infectious Diseases with Vaccination Strategies Based on Evolutionary Game Theory[J]. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals(S1873-2887), 2017, 104: 51-60.
18	Tembine H, Altman E, El-Azouzi R, et al. Evolutionary Games in Wireless Networks[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B(Cybernetics)(S1941-0492), 2010, 40(3): 634-646.
19	程乐峰, 杨汝, 刘贵云, 等. 多群体非对称演化博弈动力学及其在智能电网电力需求侧响应中的应用[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2020, 40(增1): 20-36.
	Cheng Lefeng, Yang Ru, Liu Guiyun, et al. Multi-population Asymmetric Evolutionary Game Dynamics and Its Applications in Power Demand-Side Response in Smart Grid[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2020, 40(S1): 20-36.
20	李龙, 聂龑, 陟晶, 等. 政府双重监管体制下可再生能源消纳的演化博弈研究[J]. 中国石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2021, 37(1): 1-10.
	Li Long, Nie Yan, Zhi Jing, et al. Game Analysis on the Consumption of Renewable Energy under the Government Supervision[J]. Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Social Sciences), 2021, 37(1): 1-10.
21	程宏波, 李志成, 王勋, 等. 基于演化博弈的车网双向互动策略研究[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(7): 40-46.
	Cheng Hongbo, Li Zhicheng, Wang Xun, et al. Research on Two-way Interactive Strategy of Electric Vehicle and Power Grid Based on Evolutionary Game[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52(7): 40-46.
22	Ma S, Chen B, Wang Z. Resilience Enhancement Strategy for Distribution Systems under Extreme Weather Events[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid(S1949-3053), 2018, 9(2): 1442-1451.
23	Zheng X D, Li C, Lessard S, et al. Evolutionary Stability Concepts in a Stochastic Environment[J]. Physical Review E(S2470-0053), 2017, 96(3): 032414.
24	Feng T J, Mei J, Li C, et al. Stochastic Evolutionary Stability in Matrix Games with Random Payoffs[J]. Physical Review E(S2470-0053), 2022, 105(3): 034303.
25	Fang Y, Wei W, Liu F, et al. Improving Solar Power Usage with Electric Vehicles: Analyzing a Public-Private Partnership Cooperation Scheme Based on Evolutionary Game Theory[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production(S1879-1786), 2019, 233: 1284-1297.

[1]	Li Xiaoli, Cao Cejun, Zhang Fanshun. Evolutionary Simulation of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation of Importing Country [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(9): 2252-2260.
[2]	Huang Haitao, Liu Qinming, Ye Chunming, Chen Xiang. Game Analysis of Government Procurement Contract Financing Based on Blockchain Technology [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(8): 1947-1958.
[3]	Guo Qingjun, Hao Qianwen, Wang Yijie, Wang Jing. Subway System Resilience Evaluation in Based on ANP-Extension Cloud Model [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(4): 943-950.
[4]	Rong Ming, Hu Xiaofeng, Yang Jingyu. Resilience Analysis and Evaluation of Combat System of Systems Architecture Based on Dynamic Super Network [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(6): 1055-1061.
[5]	Yang Guangming, Shi Yanjun. Study on Ecological Compensation of Three Gorges Basin Based on Evolutionary Game Theory [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(10): 2058-2068.
[6]	Wei Dezhi, Chen Fuji, Lin Lina. Simulation of Hot Event Propagation Based on Game Theory and SIRS [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(6): 2050-2057.
[7]	Rong Ming, Hu Xiaofeng, Yang Jingyu. Research on Assessment of Operation System‘s Resilience Based on Test Bed [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(12): 4711-4717.
[8]	Peng Benhong, Gu Xiaofen, Lu Qian. Analysis of Evolutionary Game of Stakeholders in Service-oriented Manufacturing Project Governance [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2017, 29(3): 595-608.
[9]	He Huanhuan, Wang Xingwei, Huang Min. Evolutionary Game-based Spectrum Sharing Scheme in Cognitive Radio Network [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(3): 756-763.