Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0623

Abstract

Abstract: In the existing drug abuse dynamics models, the drug users are assumed to be permanent immune to drugs after rehabilitation and the possibility of the recovery drug users being susceptible again is neglected. To solve the problem, through the system dynamics (SD) method, the evolution process of the drug-related crowds is analyzed, and a relevant model based on the transient immunity is constructed. The trends of the drug abuse and drug-related crime are predicted by the simulation experiments, and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the rate of contact and exposure to drugs is the most sensitive factor of the prevention and control effect. The research results show that, the situation is very severe and the systematic prevention and control strategies should be adopted. Prevention and control in advance is the most important, and the necessary correct treatments and punishment measures is the supplemented.

Key words: drug abuse, drug-related crime, prevention and control, system dynamics

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Liu Feng. Modeling and Simulation for Prevention and Control of Drug Abuse and Drug-Related Crime Based on System Dynamics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 866-873.

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