Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066

Abstract

Abstract: Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (R-DPVG) has become the important developing force of PV generation in China. As the declining of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), system dynamics method is used to construct a causal loop model for R-DPVG’s development, and relevant factors and their feedback mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. Then a stock-flow model is build, and the ROI, installed capacity, and policy subsidy costs of R-DPVG are simulated under some combined scenarios based on declining FIT. The simulation proves R-DPVG’s FIT will be reduced to 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan/(kW?h) in the next three years till cancelled. FIT cutting amplitude, capacity and targets of installation and cost of the FIT subsidy should be comprehensively considered in policy-making to promote R-DPVG’s sustainable development in China.

Key words: R-DPVG, accumulated installation capacity, ROI, costs of FIT policy, system dynamics

CLC Number:

Zhang Libo, Ge Lulu, Chen Changqi, Tang Mingduan. Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(6): 1397-1405.

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