Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis in Risk Assessment of Returning to School in the Post-COVID-19 Era

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0679

Abstract

Abstract: After the epidemic, taking the spread of the epidemic in returning to school as an example, a quantitative risk assessment study is conducted. Taking the activity trajectory description of the whole process of susceptible individuals from infection to isolation as a clue, an epidemiological model for risk assessment is established. The number of infected persons in the risk indicators of returning to school is quantified based on the quantified model parameters. According to the value characteristics of the parameters, the number of infected persons is taken as a function of discrete random variables. The probability distribution of the infected population is given through dynamic simulation calculation, combined with the principle of conservation of probability, and the uncertainty quantification of the risk of returning to school is realized. The simulation results show the feasibility of the method in the risk assessment of school resumption, and can provide a theoretical basis for the decision to resume work and school.

Key words: return to school, risk assessment, COVID-19, epidemic situation, dynamic modeling

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Li haibin, Wang jialiang, Li haiyan. Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis in Risk Assessment of Returning to School in the Post-COVID-19 Era[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(1): 13-23.

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