Real-Time Prediction of Primary Flow by MPC Method in Heating System

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0148

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the model predictive control method, this paper uses the discrete controlled autoregressive model to establish the dynamic heat transfer delay model of the secondary network and the thermal station model. The polynomial fitting method of machine learning algorithm is applied to identify and calibrate the parameters of the secondary network model and the thermal station model. The primary flow rate of the heating station under future operating conditions is predicted based on the model results, which provides a basis for the quality-based regulation of heating system. The model is verified by measured data, and the actual deviation is less than 5%, which provides a good guide for the engineering practice of heating system flow regulation.

Key words: heating system, thermal inertia, Model Predictive Control(MPC), dynamic model, flow rate prediction

CLC Number:

TP18

Li Zhongbo, Jia Meng, Kang Yan, Wang Haihong, Li Miao, Lü Qing, Xie Jingjing, Fang Dajun. Real-Time Prediction of Primary Flow by MPC Method in Heating System[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(1): 180-188.

References

[1] 陈烈. 基于神经网络的热力站供热过程预测控制研究[D]. 哈尔滨: 哈尔滨工业大学, 2009.
Chen Lie.Research on Heat Supply Predictive Control of Heating Station Based on Neural Network Method[D]. Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology, 2009.
[2] 赵琼. 智慧城市供热系统建模仿真与运行优化控制[D].杭州: 浙江大学, 2017.
Zhao Qiong.Modeling Simulation and Operational Optimization Control of Smart City Heating System[D] Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2017.
[3] 席裕庚. 预测控制[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2013.
Xi Yugeng.Predictive Control[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2013.
[4] 李国勇. 神经·模糊·预测控制及其MATLAB实现[M].北京: 电子工业出版社, 2013.
Li Guoyong.The Realization of Neural-Fuzzy-Predictive Control through Matlab[M]. Beijing: Publishing House of Electronics Industry, 2013.
[5] 于开平, 庞世伟, 赵婕. 时变线性/非线性结构参数识别及系统辨识方法研究进展[J]. 科学通报, 2009, 54(20): 3147-3156.
Yu Kaiping, Pang Shiwei, Zhao Jie.Advances in Method of Time-varying Linear/nonlinear Structural System Identification and Parameter Estimate[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2009, 54(20): 3147-3156.
[6] 庞中华. 系统辨识与自适应控制MATLAB仿真[M]. 北京: 北京航空航天大学出版社, 2009.
Pang Zhonghua.System Identification and Self-adaptive Control of Matlab Simulation[M]. Beijing: Beihang University Press, 2009.
[7] 江亿. 集中供热网控制调节策略的探讨[J]. 区域供热, 1997, 1(2): 10-14.
Jiang Yi. The Discussion of Control Strategy in District Heating Networks, 1997, 1(2): 10-14.
[8] 魏延宝, 林红权, 马增良, 等. 基于ARMAX模型的集中供热系统负荷预测研究[J]. 自动化与仪表, 2014, 29(7): 1-4.
Wei Yanbao, Lin Hongquan, Ma Zengliang, et al.Central Heating System Load Prediction Based on ARMAX Model[J]. Automation & Instrumentation, 2014, 29(7): 1-4.
[9] 林琦. 兼顾预测用户室温的供热系统动态模型研究[D].大连: 大连理工大学, 2013.
Lin Qi.A Dynamic Simulation Research on Heating System of Terminal Temperature Predicted[D]. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology, 2013.
[10] 于波, 卢欣, 李浩, 等. 基于负荷预测的园区供热系统运行优化技术[J]. 电力建设, 2017, 38(12): 77-86.
Yu Bo, Lu Xin, Li Hao, et al.Heating System Operation Optimization Technology for Park Based on Load Prediction[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2017, 38(12): 77-86.
[11] 崔高健, 凡东生, 曲永利. 基于Elman型神经网络集中供热负荷预测模型的研究[J]. 建筑节能, 2011, 1(3): 9-11.
Cui Gaojian, Fan Dongsheng, Qu Yongli.Load Prediction Model of District Heating System Based on Elman Neural Network[J]. Construction Conserves Energy, 2011, 1(3): 9-11.
[12] 陈长明. 城市供热系统二级网建模与动态特性分析[D].杭州: 浙江大学, 2017.
Chen Changming.Urban Heating System of the Secondary Network Modeling and Dynamic Analysis[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2017.
[13] 魏晋宏, 袁贺强. 预测控制在二次网供暖控制系统中的应用[J]. 暖通空调, 2012, 42(5): 100-103.
Wei Jinhong, Yuan Heqiang.Application of Prediction Control to Secondary Heating Networks[J]. Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning, 2014, 42(5): 100-103.
[14] 丁锋. 系统辨识(2): 系统描述的基本模型[J]. 南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版), 2011, 3(2): 97-117.
Ding Feng. System Identification, Part B: Basic Models for System Description[J]. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (Natural Science Edition), 2011, 3(2): 97-117.

[1]	Liang Feng, Zhang Zhili, Li Xiangyang, Li Yihao, Wang Bei, Long Yong. Research on Semi-physical Simulation Model of Special Vehicle Cockpit with Force Feedback [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(12): 2935-2943.
[2]	Li haibin, Wang jialiang, Li haiyan. Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis in Risk Assessment of Returning to School in the Post-COVID-19 Era [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(1): 13-23.
[3]	Lü Wei, Huo Feizhou. Simulation on Vehicles Mandatory Lane Changing and Merging Process in case of Road Bottleneck [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(9): 1799-1807.
[4]	Xiong Junfeng, He Yuqing, Han Jianda, Yuan Mingzhe. Robust Heading Control of an Unmanned Surface Vehicle Based on LPV Model [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(8): 1598-1605.
[5]	Zhou Nan, Wang Liang, Ai Jianliang. Modeling and Simulation of Quadrotor UAV with Vector Thrust Based on Backstepping [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(6): 1117-1125.
[6]	Zhai Zhiqiang, Xu Jinliang, Yuan Hao, Zhou Yongming, Zhao LongFei, Wang Shiqian. Simulation on a Car-following Strategy for Adaptive Cruise Control System [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 885-891.
[7]	Li Weigang, Yang Wei, Liu Chao, Yan Baokang. Thermodynamic Simulation of Carbonitride Precipitation in Micro-alloyed Steel [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(3): 520-527.
[8]	Zhang Qing, Xia Hua, Yang Ning, Qin Xianrong, Sun Yuantao. Modeling and Co-simulation of Novel Electric Heave Compensation System [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(8): 2973-2981.
[9]	He Zhen, Pang Aiping, Wang Jinghua, Meng Fanwei, Wang Guangxiong. Modeling and Analysis for Underwater High-Speed Supercavitaing Torpedo [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(8): 3092-3097.
[10]	Sun Tao, Ji Shaoxiong. Modeling and Simulation on Delay of Central Heating System for Temperature Prediction [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(4): 1328-1336.
[11]	Tian Hao, Mu Zhou, Li Huitong, Zhao Yang. Simulation of Missile Head Cover Separation and Landing Locations [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(3): 1056-1062.
[12]	Zhang Dongsheng, Yu Haiyang, Xu Jianbo, Li Yan. Nonlinear Characteristics of Transmission System of Shearer Cutting Unit [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(1): 249-257.
[13]	Zhang Hao, Chen Zili, Qiu Jingang. Modeling and Motion Analysis of Multi-bodies Dynamic of Unmaned Parafoil Vehicle [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(8): 1841-1845.
[14]	Zhao Ran, Lu Quanguo. Modeling and Simulation of Magnetostrictive Impact Drive Mechanism [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(7): 1547-1552.
[15]	Shen Peihui, Lin Shuwen. Dynamic Design for Vibratory Compaction System Basing on Chaos Identification [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(5): 1232-1241.