新冠肺炎疫情传播建模分析与预测

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0156

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 759-766.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0156

新冠肺炎疫情传播建模分析与预测

盛华雄¹, 吴琳^2*, 肖长亮¹

1. 国防大学研究生院,北京 100856;
2. 国防大学联合作战学院,北京 100856

收稿日期:2020-04-01 修回日期:2020-05-08 出版日期:2020-05-18 发布日期:2020-05-15
作者简介:盛华雄(1988-),男,江西,硕士生,工程师,研究方向为军事运筹、建模与仿真;吴琳(1974-),男,山东,博士,教授,研究方向为军事运筹、人工智能。

Modeling Analysis and Prediction on NCP Epidemic Transmission

Sheng Huaxiong¹, Wu Lin^2*, Xiao Changliang¹

1. Graduate School of National Defense University, Beijing 100856, China;
2. Joint Operation College of National Defense University, Beijing 100856, China

Received:2020-04-01 Revised:2020-05-08 Online:2020-05-18 Published:2020-05-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对武汉封城前后的新冠肺炎疫情传播进行建模分析。在对疫情数据预处理的基础上,在控制阶段运用经典的SIR模型和差分递推方法分析和预测疫情,理论值和实测值吻合较好。在自由传播阶段运用Logistic模型,比较分析提前五天或延后五天的疫情数据与实测数据,说明及时采取防疫措施的重要性。模型对相关地区的疾病传播分析具有普遍适用性。

关键词: 新冠肺炎, 疫情传播, 建模, 预测

Abstract: The modeling analysis on the NCP (Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia) epidemic transmission before and after the closure of Wuhan is presented. On the basis of preprocessing the epidemic data, the classical SIR model and differential recurrence method are used to analyze and forecast the epidemic situation in the stage of control. The theoretical value and measured value fits well. In the stage of free transmission, the logistic model is used to compare and analyze the epidemic data five days in advance or later with the actual data to show the importance of taking the epidemic prevention measures in time. The model is universally applicable to the analysis of the disease transmission in other related areas.

Key words: NCP, epidemic transmission, modeling, prediction

中图分类号:

TP391.9

盛华雄, 吴琳, 肖长亮. 新冠肺炎疫情传播建模分析与预测[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(5): 759-766.

Sheng Huaxiong, Wu Lin, Xiao Changliang. Modeling Analysis and Prediction on NCP Epidemic Transmission[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(5): 759-766.

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新冠肺炎疫情传播建模分析与预测

Modeling Analysis and Prediction on NCP Epidemic Transmission

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