Completion Time Simulation Prediction Method for Aircraft Assembly Process with Batch and Sortie

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0337

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the product differentiation analysis limitation of traditional discrete event simulation method, a simulation prediction method for aircraft assembly process with batch and sortie is proposed. Around the aircraft sortie number, the formal definition of various basic elements and interactions in the assembly process with batch and sortie is studied, and the construction of station and whole line simulation model is carried out. The simulation promotion framework and execution mechanism supporting the product differentiation analysis are studied. Based on the simulation results, a method for predicting the completion time of sorties based on interval estimation method is proposed. The test results of the historical sorties data show that the proposed simulation prediction method can accurately output the confidence interval of the estimated completion time of each sortie, and can provide the reliable evaluation for the site.

Key words: aircraft assembly, batch and sortie, discrete event simulation, simulation process control, estimated completion time

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Jiang Changjian, Fan Hu, Luo Tao, Yuan Wen, He Zehao. Completion Time Simulation Prediction Method for Aircraft Assembly Process with Batch and Sortie[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(6): 1404-1413.

Figures/Tables 10

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序号随机事件	事件发生分布	持续时间分布
工时波动	必然发生	正态分布
设备故障	泊松分布	指数分布
工人请假	泊松分布	指数分布
物料供应频率波动	必然发生	正态分布

架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间	架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间
X01	131.43	23.25	(129.63, 133.23)	X04	209.76	15.78	(208.28, 211.24)
X02	160.84	24.99	(158.98, 162.70)	X05	237.25	16.33	(235.74, 238.76)
X03	184.10	12.57	(182.78, 185.42)	X06	261.93	13.26	(260.57, 263.29)

架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间	转化为日期的置信区间	历史架次的实际完工日期
X01	130.63	12.07	(130.13, 131.13)	(2022-09-03, 2022-09-04)	2022-09-03
X02	157.51	11.44	(157.03, 158.02)	(2022-10-15, 2022-10-16)	2022-10-16
X03	183.87	11.75	(183.38, 184.36)	(2022-11-28, 2022-11-29)	2022-12-01
X04	208.98	11.83	(208.49, 209.47)	(2023-01-10, 2023-01-11)	2023-01-09
X05	236.62	11.37	(236.14, 237.10)	(2023-02-24, 2023-02-25)	2023-02-25
X06	260.80	11.89	(260.31, 261.29)	(2023-03-29, 2023-03-30)	2023-03-27

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