Journal of System Simulation ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 759-766.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0156

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Modeling Analysis and Prediction on NCP Epidemic Transmission

Sheng Huaxiong1, Wu Lin2*, Xiao Changliang1   

  1. 1. Graduate School of National Defense University, Beijing 100856, China;
    2. Joint Operation College of National Defense University, Beijing 100856, China
  • Received:2020-04-01 Revised:2020-05-08 Online:2020-05-18 Published:2020-05-15

Abstract: The modeling analysis on the NCP (Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia) epidemic transmission before and after the closure of Wuhan is presented. On the basis of preprocessing the epidemic data, the classical SIR model and differential recurrence method are used to analyze and forecast the epidemic situation in the stage of control. The theoretical value and measured value fits well. In the stage of free transmission, the logistic model is used to compare and analyze the epidemic data five days in advance or later with the actual data to show the importance of taking the epidemic prevention measures in time. The model is universally applicable to the analysis of the disease transmission in other related areas.

Key words: NCP, epidemic transmission, modeling, prediction

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