Abstract:

In modern conflict scenarios, the kill chain is integral to the comprehensive understanding, orchestration, and execution of military operations. Accurately appraising the efficiency of the kill chain is imperative for gaining insights into battle dynamics and strategically distributing military assets. However, traditional assessments of kill chain efficacy have been hampered by fragmented and isolated indicators that frequently overlook the interplay and influence among various segments of the kill chain. To address these limitations, based on the characteristics of each phase of the kill chain and the OODA loop theory, a new set of performance evaluation indices has been proposed.Furthermore, an evaluation method that integrates grey theory into the DEMATEL-ANP is developed, which has shown promising results when applied to experimental data from combat simulation experiments. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed kill chain efficacy evaluation indices and methods are rational and effective, enhancing the scientific validity and reliability of kill chain efficacy evaluation. It provides a valuable reference for decision-makers in the military field, especially in strategic planning, tactical analysis, and the allocation of combat resources.

Key words: kill chain, system effectiveness evaluation, combat simulation, grey theory, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, analytic network process