Journal of System Simulation ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1895-1913.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0848
• Papers • Previous Articles
Bao Zhe, Li Wei, Zhang Xiaofang, An Zongyuan, Xu Ye
Received:
2023-07-06
Revised:
2023-08-31
Online:
2024-08-15
Published:
2024-08-19
Contact:
Xu Ye
CLC Number:
Bao Zhe, Li Wei, Zhang Xiaofang, An Zongyuan, Xu Ye. Study on Robust Chance Constrained Optimization of Multi-energy Supply System Based on Wind and Solar Power Combined Output Simulation[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(8): 1895-1913.
Table 1
Part of system parameters
主要经济性参数 | 值 |
---|---|
燃气轮机维护成本单价/(元/kWh) | 0.03 |
吸收式制冷机组维护成本单价/(元/MJ) | 0.000 2 |
电锅炉维护成本单价/(元/MJ) | 0.000 6 |
电制冷机组维护成本单价/(元/MJ) | 0.000 5 |
弃风、弃光成本/(元/kW) | 0.2 |
风、光出力违约成本/(元/kW) | 0.4 |
天然气价格/(元/m3) | 2.12 |
主要工程参数 | 值 |
燃气轮机额定功率/MW | 2.5 |
光伏额定功率/MW | 1 |
风电额定功率/MW | 2 |
储能设备额定功率/MW | 1 |
储能设备出力系数 | 0.4 |
余热锅炉效率 | 0.776 |
电锅炉效率 | 0.95 |
天然气低位发热量/(MJ/m3) | 35.175 |
吸收式制冷机组制冷系数 | 1.2 |
电制冷机组制冷系数 | 3.6 |
Table 3
Evaluation indicators of three Copula functions in typical day over three seasons
典型日 | 数据类别 | Kendall | Spearman | 典型日 | 数据类别 | Kendall | Spearman | 典型日 | 数据类别 | Kendall |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
过渡季 | 原始数据 | 0.052 | 0.076 | 夏季 | 原始数据 | 0.038 | 0.055 | 冬季 | 原始数据 | 0.258 |
Clayton | 0.057 | 0.086 | Clayton | 0.015 | 0.022 | 0.372 | Clayton | |||
Frank | 0.053 | 0.079 | Frank | 0.038 | 0.057 | 0.212 | 0.312 | |||
Gumbel | 0.046 | 0.069 | Gumbel | 0.050 | 0.075 | Frank | 0.252 |
Table 4
Comparison of cost under different scenarios
经济性指标 | 过渡季典型日 | 夏季典型日 | 冬季典型日 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
情景I | 情景II | 情景III | 情景I | 情景II | 情景III | 情景I | 情景II | 情景III | |
优化运行成本 | 42 713 | 43 909 | 51 949 | 63 148 | 64 365 | 69 377 | 93 560 | 95 390 | 104 760 |
优化不确定性风险成本 | 1 167 | 1 152 | 548 | 613 | 593 | 419 | 1 678 | 1 073 | 297 |
随机模拟不确定性风险最小成本 | 1 829 | 1 804 | 260 | 778 | 750 | 356 | 1 992 | 1 383 | 116 |
随机模拟不确定性风险平均成本 | 2 160 | 2 130 | 347 | 942 | 907 | 293 | 2 306 | 1 692 | 176 |
随机模拟不确定性风险最大成本 | 2 591 | 2 554 | 414 | 1 106 | 1 074 | 230 | 2 620 | 2 005 | 237 |
最小风险成本 | 662 | 652 | -288 | 164 | 157 | -188 | 314 | 309 | -182 |
平均风险成本 | 993 | 978 | -201 | 329 | 314 | -125 | 628 | 618 | -121 |
最大风险成本 | 1 424 | 1 402 | -134 | 493 | 481 | -63 | 942 | 932 | -61 |
Table 5
Comparison of cost under different scenarios
违约水平 | 经济性指标 | 过渡季典型日 | 夏季典型日 | 冬季典型日 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
情景I | 情景II | 情景III | 情景I | 情景II | 情景III | 情景I | 情景II | 情景III | ||
0.01~0.1 | 运行成本 | 42 713 | 43 909 | 51 949 | 63 148 | 64 365 | 69 377 | 93 560 | 95 390 | 104 760 |
不确定性风险成本 | 1 167 | 1 152 | 548 | 613 | 593 | 419 | 1 678 | 1 073 | 297 | |
0.05~0.15 | 运行成本 | 42 145 | 42 847 | 50 251 | 62 298 | 63 730 | 66 870 | 92 162 | 94 841 | 101 832 |
不确定性风险成本 | 1 132 | 1 156 | 656 | 631 | 602 | 510 | 1 896 | 1 332 | 580 | |
0.2~0.5 | 运行成本 | 37 674 | 38 268 | 41 035 | 55 452 | 56 262 | 60 767 | 89 131 | 90 124 | 91 131 |
不确定性风险成本 | 3 267 | 3 123 | 1 341 | 928 | 879 | 689 | 3 890 | 3 675 | 2 364 |
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