Abstract: The missile accuracy of the falling points is one of the important performance indexes of missile systems, so the assessment method is very important. An improved algorithm for missile accuracy assessment is proposed. Accuracy assessment problem is simplified as a hypothesis check for probability circle, and the accuracy difference coefficients are defined to describe the accuracy difference between the real falling points and the expected situation. Based on the probability circle method, an improved risk assessment method is put forward to balance and minimize producer's risk and consumer's risk. According to sequential check method, this risk assessment method is extended, and applied to sequential check situation. The simulation result shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: probability circle, assessment method, risk, sequential check, simulation