A Threat Assessment Method in Uncertain Dynamic Environments

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.24-FZ0735

Abstract

Abstract:

A threat assessment method based on priori information and dynamic observation results is studied for the existence of dynamic uncertainty in complex war systems. The data mining is applied to obtain prior knowledge on the battlefield situation and construct an equipment-related confidence matrix. The sensor model is constructed to dynamically update the number of blue-side entities under the current situation by using the Bayesian method and considering both intelligence and observation results. The threat evaluation indicators and their weights are determined, and the TOPSIS method is used to finish the threat assessment. This method can well describe the complex and changing dynamic battlefield environment and make full use of priori information and dynamic observation results for threat assessment of the detection area or the undetectable location nearby. The feasibility of this method is verified through case simulation analysis.

Key words: threat assessment, data mining, Bayesian, TOPSIS, uncertainty

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Yang Mei, Wang Bingkun, Zhang Zhongjie, Zeng Yan, Huang Jian. A Threat Assessment Method in Uncertain Dynamic Environments[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(12): 2741-2754.

Figures/Tables 14

Table 1

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

Fig. 11

Fig. 12

Fig. 13

References 23

1	曲长文, 何友, 马强. 应用多属性决策的威胁评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2000, 22(5): 26-29.
	Qu Changwen, He You, Ma Qiang. Threat Assessment Using Multiple Attribute Decision Making[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2000, 22(5): 26-29.
2	董彦非, 郭基联, 张恒喜. 多机空战目标威胁评估算法[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2002, 27(4): 73-76.
	Dong Yanfei, Guo Jilian, Zhang Hengxi. Threat Assessment for Multi-aircraft-air Combat[J]. Fire Control & Command Control, 2002, 27(4): 73-76.
3	杨妹. 面向高层辅助决策支持的军事分析仿真系统关键技术研究[D]. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2014.
	Yang Mei. Research on Key Technologies of Military Analytic Simulation for High Level Decision-making[D]. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2014.
4	黄炎焱, 雷震, 薄煜明. 基于概率本体和多实体贝叶斯网络的目标威胁评估[C]//第八届中国指挥控制大会论文集. 北京: 中国指挥与控制学会, 2020: 656-661.
5	陆遥, 李东生. 基于威胁概率图的无人机作战场景模型设计[J]. 电子信息对抗技术, 2018, 33(5): 60-66, 79.
	Lu Yao, Li Dongsheng. Design of UAV Combat Scenario Model Based on Threat Probability Graph[J]. Electronic Information Warfare Technology, 2018, 33(5): 60-66, 79.
6	Wen Jiaxing, Zhang Qijia, Li Yunchen. UUV Mission Re-planning Based on Threat Assessment of Uncertain Events[C]//2023 38th Youth Academic Annual Conference of Chinese Association of Automation (YAC). Piscataway: IEEE, 2023: 341-346.
7	Li Danyi, Liu Meiqin, Zhang Senlin. Underwater Target Threat Assessment Method Based on Bayesian Network[C]//2021 40th Chinese Control Conference (CCC). Piscataway: IEEE, 2021: 3363-3367.
8	Cao Xiang, Sun Changyin, Wang Xuerao. Threat Assessment Strategy of Human-in-the-loop Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Under Uncertain Events[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 2024, 54(1): 520-532.
9	Shi Guoqing, Pu Junwei, Zhang Lin, et al. Situation Assessment Based on Multi-entity Bayesian Network[C]//2020 IEEE 16th International Conference on Control & Automation (ICCA). Piscataway: IEEE, 2020: 702-707.
10	Gao Yang, Li Dongsheng, Zhong Hua. A Novel Target Threat Assessment Method Based on Three-way Decisions Under Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision Making Environment[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 2020, 87: 103276.
11	Zhang Jinhuan, Shan Yujie, Dong Jian. A Threat Assessment Method Based on Correlation-similarity Information and Three-way Decisions in Interval Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 2024, 135: 108793.
12	Lu Yanli, Lei Xiaoli, Zhou Zhiping, et al. Approximate Reasoning Based on IFRS and DS Theory with Its Application in Threat Assessment[J]. IEEE Access, 2020, 8: 160558-160568.
13	Zhang Kun, Kong Weiren, Liu Peipei, et al. Assessment and Sequencing of Air Target Threat Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Entropy and Dynamic VIKOR[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2018, 29(2): 305-310.
14	Li Yiyuan, Chen Weiyi, Liu Shukan, et al. Multi-UAV Cooperative Air Combat Target Assignment Method Based on VNS-IBPSO in Complex Dynamic Environment[J]. International Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 2024, 2024(1): 9980746.
15	王毅, 刘三阳, 张文, 等. 属性权重不确定的直觉模糊多属性决策的威胁评估方法[J]. 电子学报, 2014, 42(12): 2509-2514.
	Wang Yi, Liu Sanyang, Zhang Wen, et al. Threat Assessment Method with Uncertain Attribute Weight Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multi-attribute Decision[J]. Acta Electronica Sinica, 2014, 42(12): 2509-2514.
16	Zhou Lin, Zhang Meng, Weiwei Shuai, et al. Air Target Threat Assessment and Prediction Based on Improved GM(1,1) Model[C]//2023 IEEE International Conference on Signal Processing, Communications and Computing (ICSPCC). Piscataway: IEEE, 2023: 1-6.
17	Wang Yu, Fan Zilin, Ren Tianjun, et al. Target Threat Assessment in Air Combat with Incomplete Information[C]//2022 34th Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC). Piscataway: IEEE, 2022: 5326-5330.
18	Ristic Branko, Benavoli Alessio, Skvortsov Alex. Robust Target Area Search Using Sets of Probabilities[J]. Digital Signal Processing, 2023, 142: 104195.
19	Yu Liang, Lin Da. Bayesian-based Search Decision Framework and Search Strategy Analysis in Probabilistic Search[J]. Scientific Programming, 2020, 2020(1): 8865381.
20	Ganter B, Rudolf W. Formal Concept Analysis: Mathematical Foundations[M]. Switzerland: Springer, 1999.
21	Agrawal R, Srikant R. Fast Algorithms for Mining Association Rules in Large Databases[C]//Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Very Large Data Bases. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 1994: 487-499.
22	贺毅辉. 作战模拟基础[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2012.
	He Yihui. Fundamentals of Operational Simulation[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2012.
23	张堃, 周德云. 熵权与群组AHP相结合的TOPSIS法多目标威胁评估[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2008, 20(7): 1661-1664.
	Zhang Kun, Zhou Deyun. Application of TOPSIS Based on Entropy and GD-AHP in Evaluating Sequence of Air Target Threat[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2008, 20(7): 1661-1664.

类型	概率
人员	0.45
装备1	0.35
装备2	0.45
装备3	0.35
装备4	0.45
装备5	0.30

[1]	Bao Zhe, Li Wei, Zhang Xiaofang, An Zongyuan, Xu Ye. Study on Robust Chance Constrained Optimization of Multi-energy Supply System Based on Wind and Solar Power Combined Output Simulation [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(8): 1895-1913.
[2]	Xie Xin, Hu Xiaobing, Zhou Hang. Research on Path Optimization Algorithm in Dynamic Routing Environment [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(8): 1969-1981.
[3]	Zhang Kunpeng, Wang Yan, Ji Zhicheng. Intelligent Optimization Method of Cloud Manufacturing Swarm Based on Incomplete Information Game [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(4): 915-928.
[4]	Shui Jijun, Peng Daogang, Song Yankan, Zhou Qiang. Optimal Scheduling Strategy of Virtual Power Plant with Carbon Emission and Carbon Penalty Considering Uncertainty of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(2): 305-319.
[5]	Mou Jianpeng, Xiong Weili. Fault Detection Based on Sliding Window and Multiblock Convolutional Autoencoders [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(2): 423-435.
[6]	Zhang Peng, Feng Ke. Optimization of Crucial Targets for Air Defense Based on Combined Weighting-TOPSIS Model [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(11): 2644-2653.
[7]	Zhou Qifan, Liu Haixu, Dong Zhipeng, Xu Yin. Spatio-temporal Association Rule Mining of Traffic Congestion in a Large-scale Road Network Based on Trajectory Data [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(1): 260-271.
[8]	Li Zhang, Mingling He, Qiushuang Yin, Ning Li, Le'an Yu. Research on Period Emergency Supply Distribution Optimization Under Uncertainty [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(8): 1669-1680.
[9]	Shuyuan Liu. An Algorithm for Obtaining Interception Guidance Routes Weighted by Threat Indexes [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(5): 971-978.
[10]	Junyang Liu, Shisong Zhu. Auxiliary Decision-Making Method for Flight Support Force Allocation Based on DBN [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(5): 1008-1019.
[11]	Yaqian Fan, Songyuan Yu, Fang Fang. Two-Stage Distributed Robust Optimal Dispatching for a Combined Heat and Power Virtual Power Plant [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(5): 1046-1058.
[12]	Hu Jie, Bao Fan. Airport Operational Efficiency Evaluation Based on Combined Weighting-TOPSIS Model [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(12): 2570-2581.
[13]	Liu Lu, Li Wenxin, Song Xiao, Sun Bingli, Gong Guanghong. A Fuzzy Group Decision-making-based Method for Green Supplier Selection and Order Allocation [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(10): 2133-2149.
[14]	Zhaopeng Liu, Xinhai Xu, Bowen Yuan, Jinlu Zhang. A Multi-resolution Simulation Modeling Method [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(1): 202-211.
[15]	Wanjie Hu, Jianjun Dong, Rui Ren, Zhilong Chen. Layout Planning of Metro-based Underground Logistics System Network Considering Fuzzy Uncertainties [J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(8): 1725-1740.