Dynamic Risk Assessment of VOCs Cross Regional Flow Based on Petri Nets

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0938

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the interaction between regions due to the cross regional flow of VOCs(volatile organic compounds) under polluted weather, a dynamic risk assessment method of cross regional flow of VOCs is proposed by using Petri net modeling method. The migration paths of VOCs between multiple potential pollution sources and contaminated areas are determined by HYSPLIT model, and the relationship between each migration path is described by Petri net; the dynamic risk assessment method is defined, and the calculation of dynamic risk is integrated into the operation of functional Petri net; through case analysis, the dynamic risk assessment results of surrounding areas for Xi'an under polluted weather and the potential risk index of each pollution path are obtained. The research shows that under heavy pollution weather, the influence degree of each pollution source city on Xi'an is Baoji > Hanzhong > Xining > Lanzhou from high to low. This method provides a basis for evaluating the risk degree of potential pollution sources in the cross regional flow of VOCs.

Key words: volatile organic compounds(VOCs), risk assessment, cross regional, functional Petri net, contribution rate

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Guangqiu Huang, He Wang. Dynamic Risk Assessment of VOCs Cross Regional Flow Based on Petri Nets[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(1): 57-68.

Figures/Tables 12

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Table 1

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VOCs潜在风险系数	单点源风险	潜在风险指数（RI)	总的潜在风险程度
<0.5	轻微	<0.5	轻微
0.5~0.75	中	0.5~1.5	中等
0.75~1	较强	1.5~2.5	强
1~1.5	强	>2.5	极强
>1.5	极强

潜在污染源	路径编号	路径贡献率/%	库所编号	坐标	库所位置
兰州	4	16	P₆	36.87N，103.34E	永登县
			P₈	37.69N，103.09E	景泰县
			P₉	38.08N，108.82E	古浪县黄花滩镇
	3	36	P₇	36.82N，103.58E	兰州新区上川镇
			P₁₁	37.43N，104.08E	景泰县草窝滩镇
			P₁₂	37.54N，104.19E	景泰县温都尔勒图镇
			P₁₃	38.02N，104.70E	中卫市
西宁	3	9	P₈	37.69N，103.09E	景泰县
			P₁₀	37.64N，103.67E	武威市
			P₁₂	37.54N，104.19E	景泰县温都尔勒图镇
			P₁₄	37.12N，105.64E	同心县喊叫水乡
			P₁₅	36.94N，106.09E	同心县王团镇
			P₂₄	36.49N，107.15E	环县
			P₂₅	36.67N，106.75E	小南沟乡
	4	11	P₆	36.87N，103.34E	永登县
	4	11	P₇	36.82N，103.58E	兰州新区上川镇
汉中	2	18	P₁₇	33.98N，106.63E	凤县
			P₁₈	35.48N，106.60E	平凉市
			P₂₀	36.26N，106.67E	固原市王洼镇
			P₂₁	35.87N，106.63E	彭阳县
			P₂₅	36.67N，106.75E	小南沟乡
	3	14	P₂₆	34.72N，106.98E	千阳县水沟镇
			P₂₇	34.81N，107.08E	千阳县张家塬镇
			P₂₈	35.04N，107.74E	灵台县
			P₂₉	34.94N，108.28E	旬邑县龙高镇
宝鸡	1	14	P₁₅	36.94N，106.09E	同心县王团镇
			P₁₆	36.64N，106.20E	同心县七营镇
			P₁₈	35.48N，106.60E	平凉市
			P₁₉	36.02N，106.40E	固原市
			P₂₆	34.72N，106.98E	千阳县水沟镇
	5	28	P₂₂	35.59N，107.02E	镇原县
			P₂₃	35.94N，107.04E	庙渠镇
			P₂₄	36.49N，107.15E	环县
			P₂₇	34.81N，107.08E	千阳县张家塬镇

对象库所	浓度实测值/(μg/m³）	路径贡献率/%	污染系数E	风险等级	潜在风险指数RI	综合污染指数θ
P₄	115	16	0.297	轻微	0.365	0.22
P₆	10.427		0.027
P₇	13.417		0.035
P₈	2.3		0.006
P₉	0.153	36	0.001	轻微	0.1	0.035
P₁₁	7.283		0.042
P₁₂	7.053		0.041
P₁₃	2.683		0.016
P₅	189	11	0.347	轻微	0.402	0.263
P₆	15.419		0.028
P₇	14.726		0.027
P₈	12.687	9	0.019	轻微	0.08	0.016
P₁₀	11.481		0.017
P₁₂	10.064		0.015
P₁₄	6.946		0.010
P₁₅	5.812		0.006
P₂₅	4.820		0.007
P₂₄	3.898		0.006
P₂	125	14	0.407	中等	0.52	0.294
P₁₇	10.865		0.035
P₂₆	8.24		0.027
P₂₇	7.802		0.025
P₂₈	4.885		0.016
P₂₉	3.063		0.010
P₁₈	8.343	18	0.345	轻微	0.409	0.254
P₂₀	6.938		0.029
P₂₁	5.343		0.022
P₂₅	3.094		0.013
P₃	228	28	1.030	强	1.819	0.772
P₂₇	57.456		0.259
P₂₂	44.954		0.203
P₂₃	39.9		0.180
P₂₄	32.452		0.147
P₂₆	28.728	14	0.065	轻微	0.221	0.056
P₁₈	22.078		0.050
P₁₉	18.62		0.042
P₁₆	15.162		0.034
P₁₅	13.3		0.030
P₁	331	17	1.705	极强	2.739	1.237
P₂₉	46.892		0.242
P₂₃	37.279		0.192
P₂₀	35.169		0.181
P₁₆	32.355		0.167
P₁₄	28.369		0.146
P₁₃	20.632		0.106
P₂₈	53.457	13	0.211	中等	1.285	0.198
P₂₂	51.346		0.202
P₂₁	49.471		0.195
P₁₉	49.002		0.193
P₁₁	42.203		0.166
P₁₀	41.265		0.163
P₉	39.389		0.155

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