Time-cost Risk Analysis for Complex Product Development Project by Simulation

Journal of System Simulation ›› 2015, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (11): 2811-2815.

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Time-cost Risk Analysis for Complex Product Development Project by Simulation

Yang Baosen¹, Yang Nan², Cui Li³

1. Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China;
2. Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;
3. Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

Received:2015-05-10 Revised:2015-07-10 Online:2015-11-08 Published:2020-08-05
About author:Yang Baosen(1965-), Male, Hebei Zaoqiang, China, Ph.D, Associate professor, Major in information system project implementation and management.
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant (71171146)

Abstract

Abstract: Since complex product R&D project is characteristic with more stochastic factors, a dynamic simulation model of stochastic activity network was established for complex product R&D projects by consideration of the activity iteration and its dynamic characteristics. The methods of describing task rework probability, rework impact, iteration rework policy and so on were researched deeply. A case study illustrates the modeling process and the result of simulation.

Key words: complex product, process model, risk analysis, stochastic activity network

CLC Number:

Yang Baosen, Yang Nan, Cui Li. Time-cost Risk Analysis for Complex Product Development Project by Simulation[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2015, 27(11): 2811-2815.

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Time-cost Risk Analysis for Complex Product Development Project by Simulation

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