Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201810002

Abstract

Abstract: A method of scenario computing is developed for modeling systems with deep uncertainty. The method consists three complementary parts: hybrid modelling, diverse computing, and interactive validation. Hybrid modelling is to dynamically develop models with merging historical knowledges and observed information. Diversity computation is to simulate multiple plausible scenarios about system future. Interactive validation helps scenario computing process being on the right way instead of deviating. Two cases are provided in this paper applying scenario computing, one is earthquake and the other is driving and transportation. The results show good performance of scenario computing method in modeling uncertainty systems.

Key words: scenario computing, deep uncertainty system, diversity, hybrid modelling

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Liu Yi, Wang Gangqiao, Wu Zhipeng, Fan Zhenqiang, Chen Yongqiang. Scenario Computing for Analysis of Deep Uncertainty Systems[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(10): 3608-3615.

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