Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-9177

Abstract

Abstract: A new method based on evidence theory is proposed to solve the lack of data for the demand prediction of spares in wartime. Utilizing Markov chain model to research the rule of spares demand of peacetime from the historical data. A Markov chain transfer probability adjustment strategy, based on the change of combat intensity, is designed, which can be used to simulation the rule of spares demand in wartime. Under the experience of experts and the combination of the Fuzzy theory and evidence theory, the spares demand is wartime is forecasted. The simulation example shows that the method can effectively predict the spares demand of wartime.

Key words: wartime, demand forecasting of spares, evidence theory, combat intensity, Fuzzy theory

CLC Number:

TP182

Zhang Yunjing, Wang Xinxin, Wang Yang, Tang Guangming. Demand Forecasting of Wartime Spares Based on Evidence Theory[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(2): 314-322.

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