DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286

Abstract

Abstract: Dairy cold chain logistics is a one-way dynamic process. According to the Bayesian theory, this paper considered the transitivity between risks and used the GeNIe software to establish the DBN risk assessment model. The cold chain logistics risk probability of dairy products was evaluated and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. The results revealed that the probability of transportation risk is the highest, and the sensitivity of processing risk is the highest. The processing and the transportation are the key links of the dairy product cold chain logistics. Comparing the results of DBN and the results of static Bayesian network by Marcus score, it is found that the results of DBN are efficient precision. This model provides a new evaluation paradigm for risk assessment of cold chain industry.

Key words: dairy quality, cold chain logistics risk, dynamic Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Chen Weijiong, Fan Wen, Zhu Xiaolin, Xie Qimiao, Yin Xiaobei. DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(5): 936-945.

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