考虑进口税负与通关延误的制造供应链布局演化分析

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0065

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

国外供应商选址自贸区海关特殊监管区域能够避免剩余库存进口税负，但“二线”通关可能影响供应及时性。以拉动式生产广泛应用为背景，引入演化博弈研究进口税负和通关延误对自贸区供应链布局的影响。存在3种布局演化稳定策略，并给出了基于进口税负与通关延误判定演化方向的3个条件；进口税负对系统演化速度的影响与演化稳定策略相关；通关延误对布局演化的影响具有不确定性。相关结果可以为自贸区规划管理提供参考。

关键词: 自贸区, 进口税负, 通关延误率, 供应及时性, 演化博弈

Abstract:

For foreign suppliers located in the special customs supervision area of free trade zone (FTZ), they can avoid the import tax burden of the remaining inventory can be avoided, but the import clearance may affect the timeliness of supply. Considering the widespread application of pull production, evolutionary game is introduced to study the influence of import tax burden and customs clearance delay on supply chain layout in FTZ. Three evolutionary stability strategies (ESS) are researched, which can be determined by the three conditions constructed by the import tax burden and customs clearance delay. The impact of import tax burden on the policy evolution speed of supplier and manufacturer is related to ESS. The impact of customs clearance delay on the layout evolution is uncertain. The research results can provide reference for the planning and management of free trade zones.

Key words: free trade zone, import tax burden, customs clearance delay, the timeliness of supply, evolutionary game theory

中图分类号:

李武强. 考虑进口税负与通关延误的制造供应链布局演化分析[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2023, 35(6): 1322-1336.

Wuqiang Li. Evolution Analysis of Manufacturing Supply Chain Layout Considering Import Tax Burden and Customs Clearance Delay[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(6): 1322-1336.

图/表 15

表1

博弈收益矩阵

供应商

制造商

区内

区外

区内

O w - δ s

O (p - w) - δ m

$O w - α c s O - δ s$ ,

$O (p - w) - α c m O$

区外

$O w - α c s O - (Q - O) w t$ ,

$O (p - w) - α c m O - δ m$

$O w - (Q - O) w t$ ,

$O (p - w)$

表1

表3

低税负情景博弈收益矩阵

供应商

制造商

区内

区外

区内

D ¯ w - δ s

D ¯ (p - w) - δ m

$D ¯ w - α c s D ¯ - δ s$ ,

$D ¯ (p - w) - α c m D ¯$

区外

$D ¯ w - α c s D ¯ - (1 - β) Δ D w t$ ,

$D ¯ (p - w) - α c m D ¯ - δ m$

$D ¯ w - (1 - β) Δ D w t$ ,

$D ¯ (p - w)$

表3

表4

低税负情景均衡点局部稳定性分析

均衡点	局部稳定性	条件	备注
$(0,0)$	ESS	$(1 - β) Δ D w t < δ s + α c s D ¯$
$(1,1)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ > δ m (1 - β) Δ D w t > δ s - α c s D ¯$	可简化为 $α c m D ¯ > δ m$
$(1,0)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ < δ m (1 - β) Δ D w t > δ s + α c s D ¯$
$(0,1)$	不稳定		$t r J > 0$
$(x ̂ L, y ̂ L)$	不稳定		$d e t J < 0$

表4

图1

图2

表5

中等税负情景均衡点局部稳定性分析

均衡点	局部稳定性	条件	备注
$(0,0)$	ESS	$(1 - β) Δ D w t < δ s + α c s D ¯$
$(1,1)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ > δ m α c s D L > δ s - (D ¯ - D L) w$	可简化为 $α > α ¯$
$(1,0)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ < δ m (1 - β) Δ D w t > δ s + α c s D ¯$

表5

图3

表6

高税负情景均衡点局部稳定性分析

均衡点	局部稳定性	条件	备注
$(0,0)$	ESS	$α c s D ¯ > (D ¯ - D L) w - δ s$
$(1,1)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ > δ m α c s D L > δ s - (D ¯ - D L) w$	可简化为 $α > α ¯$
$(1,0)$	ESS	$α c m D ¯ < δ m α c s D ¯ < (D ¯ - D L) w - δ s$

表6

图4

表7

系统演化稳定策略与对应条件

分类	条件	ESS
$α' > α ¯$	$α ≤ α ¯$ ， $t < t b (α)$	${W, W}$
	$α < α ¯$ ， $t > t b (α)$	${N, W}$
	$α ¯ < α ≤ α'$ ， $t > t b (α)$	${N, N}$
	$α ¯ < α ≤ α' t < t b (α)$ 或 $α > α'$	${W, W}$ 或 ${N, N}$
$α' ≤ α ¯$	$0 ≤ α ≤ m a x {α', 0} t ≤ t b (α)$ 或 $α > m a x {α', 0}$	${W, W}$
	$0 ≤ α < m a x {α', 0}$ ， $t > t b (α)$	${N, W}$
	$α > α ¯$	${W, W}$ 或 ${N, N}$

表7

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

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