基于演化博弈的低碳城市电网长期韧性仿真方法

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-FZ0917

系统仿真学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 2595-2604.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-FZ0917

基于演化博弈的低碳城市电网长期韧性仿真方法

崔正达¹(), 姚维强², 徐琴², 方陈², 陈颖¹()

^1.清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系，北京 100084
^2.国网上海市电力公司，上海 200122

收稿日期:2022-08-06 修回日期:2022-10-18 出版日期:2022-12-31 发布日期:2022-12-21
通讯作者: 陈颖 E-mail:cuizd21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn;chen_ying@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:崔正达(1998-)，男，硕士生，研究方向为电网韧性防御方法。E-mail：cuizd21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
上海科技委碳达峰、碳中和专项(21DZ1208300)

Long-term Resilience Simulation on Low-carbon Urban Grid Based on Evolutionary Game

Zhengda Cui¹(), Weiqiang Yao², Qin Xu², Chen Fang², Ying Chen¹()

^1.Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
^2.State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200122, China

Received:2022-08-06 Revised:2022-10-18 Online:2022-12-31 Published:2022-12-21
Contact: Ying Chen E-mail:cuizd21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn;chen_ying@tsinghua.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

极端灾害频发，城市电网韧性重要性日趋凸显。而在碳中和政策背景下，城市电网的低碳化转型将影响电网韧性发展。使用演化博弈理论对低碳城市电网的长期韧性仿真方法进行研究，建立电网韧性演化仿真模型。该模型考虑居民安装光储系统以及电网韧性升级决策，并基于仿真模型分析演化博弈均衡结果。建立考虑灾害随机性的韧性演化仿真模型。对上述模型进行仿真验证，仿真结果可以为低碳城市电网韧性发展决策提供参考。

关键词: 低碳电网, 韧性, 光储系统, 演化博弈, 演化均衡策略

Abstract:

Because of the more frequent extreme disasters, the resilience of urban grid becomes more important. In the background of carbon neutralization policy, the decarbonization transition of urban grid also affects the development of grid resilience. An evolutionary game is used to simulate the resilience evolution of low-carbon urban grid and the evolution model is constructed. The decision to install photovoltaic and energy storage system for residents and to upgrade the grid for resilience is considered in the model and the stability conditions of equilibriums of the evolutionary game are analyzed. The resilience evolution simulation model considering disaster stochasticity is constructed and verified. The results can provide decision reference for the low-carbon urban grid resilience development.

Key words: low-carbon grid, resilience, photovoltaic and battery energy storage system, evolutionary game, evolutionarily stable strategy

中图分类号:

TP391.9

崔正达, 姚维强, 徐琴, 方陈, 陈颖. 基于演化博弈的低碳城市电网长期韧性仿真方法[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2022, 34(12): 2595-2604.

Zhengda Cui, Weiqiang Yao, Qin Xu, Chen Fang, Ying Chen. Long-term Resilience Simulation on Low-carbon Urban Grid Based on Evolutionary Game[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(12): 2595-2604.

图/表 10

图1

表1

情况1平衡点稳定条件

平衡点	det J	tr J	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 1$ $β 2$	$β 1$ + $β 2$	$β 1$ <0, $β 2$ <0
(0, 1)	- $β 2$ $β 3$	- $β 2$ + $β 3$	$β 2$ >0, $β 3$ <0
(1, 0)	$C U P$ $β 1$	- $C U P$ - $β 1$	$β 1$ >0
(1, 1)	- $C U P$ $β 3$	- $C U P$ - $β 3$	无法稳定

表1

表2

情况2平衡点稳定条件

平衡点	det J	tr J	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 2$ $β 4$	$β 2$ + $β 4$	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ <0
(0, 1)	- $β 2$ $β 3$	- $β 2$ + $β 3$	$β 2$ >0, $β 3$ <0
(1, 0)	- $β 4$ $β 5$	- $β 4$ + $β 5$	$β 4$ >0, $β 5$ <0
(1, 1)	$β 3$ $β 5$	- $β 3$ - $β 5$	$β 3$ >0, $β 5$ >0

表2

表3

情况3平衡点稳定条件

平衡点	稳定条件
(0, 0)	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ <0
(0, 1)	$β 2$ >0, $β 4$ <0
(1, 0)	$β 2$ <0, $β 4$ >0
(1, 1)	$β 2$ >0, $β 4$ >0

表3

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

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基于演化博弈的低碳城市电网长期韧性仿真方法

Long-term Resilience Simulation on Low-carbon Urban Grid Based on Evolutionary Game

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