基于博弈论和SIRS的热点事件传播仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201806007

系统仿真学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 2050-2057.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201806007

基于博弈论和SIRS的热点事件传播仿真研究

魏德志^{1, 2}, 陈福集², 林丽娜¹

1. 集美大学诚毅学院, 厦门 361021;
2.福州大学经济与管理学院, 福州 350108

收稿日期:2016-08-12 修回日期:2017-01-15 出版日期:2018-06-08 发布日期:2018-06-14
作者简介:魏德志(1982-),男,福建安溪,博士,副教授,研究方向为网络舆情,演化博弈,数据挖掘。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71271056),福建省教育厅项目(C13001,JA14368) ,福建省高校杰出青年科研人才培育计划项目(ZX17033)

Simulation of Hot Event Propagation Based on Game Theory and SIRS

Wei Dezhi^{1, 2}, Chen Fuji², Lin Lina¹

1. Jimei University Chengyi College Xiamen 361021, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University Fuzhou 350108, China

Received:2016-08-12 Revised:2017-01-15 Online:2018-06-08 Published:2018-06-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 网络舆情热点事件在网络上的传播速度快,影响力大,已经成为广大网民和政府关心的话题。针对热点传播的问题提出改进的SIRS传播模型,该模型结合博弈论对SIRS模型中的传染体和免疫体进行演化博弈建模,对SIRS模型进行改进,得到热点话题传播的平衡点和规律。最后根据具体网络热点事件对模型进行实验验证,证实该模型的准确性和适用性,为热点事件传播控制提供对策建议。

关键词: 网络舆情, 热点事件, 演化博弈, SIRS传染病模型

Abstract: The hot events of the internet public opinion spread fast and have great influence. It has become a topic of concern for netizens and governments. The spread of hot spots on the internet is similar to the dynamics of infectious diseases, so a traditional SIRS epidemic model based improved model is proposed, combining the analysis of the game theory. The evolutionary game model of infectious body and immune body is constructed, the equilibrium point of the game is found and the law of the spread of hot spots is obtained. The model is verified by experiment through the specific network hot events, and the actual data simulation analysis is carried out through different parameters. The propagation law of hot spots is obtained through the experiments, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the control of the hot spot events are provided.

Key words: internet public opinion, hot event, evolutionary game, SIRS epidemic model

中图分类号:

TP302

魏德志, 陈福集, 林丽娜. 基于博弈论和SIRS的热点事件传播仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(6): 2050-2057.

Wei Dezhi, Chen Fuji, Lin Lina. Simulation of Hot Event Propagation Based on Game Theory and SIRS[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(6): 2050-2057.

参考文献

[1] 宋彪, 朱建明, 黄启发. 基于群集动力学和演化博弈论的网络舆情疏导模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2014, 34(11): 2984-2994.
SONG Biao, ZHU Jian-ming, HUANG Qi-fa.The Internet public opinion grooming model based on cluster dynamics and evolutionary game theory[J]. Systems Engineering- Theory & Practice, 2014, 34(11): 2984-2994.
[2] 丁学君. 基于SIR的SNS网络舆情话题传播模型研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2015, 32(1): 241-247.
DING Xue-jun.Research on Propagation Model of Public Opinion Topics in SNS Based on SIR[J]. Computer Simulation,2015, 32(1):241-247.
[3] 谭娟. 基于传染病模型的社交网络舆情话题传播[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2015, 51(12): 118-122.
TAN Juan.Public opinion topics propagation in social network based on infectious disease model[J]. Computer Engi-neering and Applications, 2015, 51(12): 118-122.
[4] 韩忠明, 张慧, 张梦. 基于内容的热点话题传播模型[J]. 智能系统学报, 2013, 8(3): 233-239.
HAN Zhongming, ZHANG Hui, ZHANG Meng.A hot topic propagation model based on topic contents[J]. CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems, 2013, 8(3): 233-239.
[5] 周飞, 郭韧. 基于多方博弈的政府回应网络舆情策略研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2015, 34(5): 128-133.
Zhou Fei, Guo Ren.Government Response Strategy to Network Public Opinion Based on Multi-game[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(5): 128-133.
[6] 刘人境, 孙滨, 刘德海. 网络群体事件政府治理的演化博弈分析[J]. 管理学报, 2015, 12(6): 911-919.
LIU Renjing, SUN Bin, LIU Dehai.Analysis of Government Management in the Network Mass Incidents Based on Evolutionary Game Theory[J]. Chinese Jouranl of Management, 2015, 12(6): 911-919.
[7] 陈福集, 黄江玲. 基于演化博弈的网络舆情热点话题传播模型研究[J]. 情报科学, 2015, 33(11): 74-78.
CHEN Fu-Ji, HUANG Jiang-Ling.Dissemination Model of the Hot Topic of Network Public Opinions Based on Evolutionary Game[J]. Information Science, 2015, 33(11): 74-78.
[8] 陈福集, 黄江玲. 基于演化博弈的网络舆情传播的羊群效应研究[J]. 情报杂志, 2013, 32(10): 1-5.
CHEN Fu-Ji, HUANG Jiang-Ling.Herd Instinct of the Transmission of Network Public Opinion Based on Evolutionary Game[J]. Information Science, 2013, 32(10): 1-5.
[9] 刘锦德, 刘咏梅. 基于不完全信息演化博弈模型的网络舆情传播羊群行为[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2013, 35(5): 96-101.
LIU Jin-de, LIU Yong-mei.Herd behavior in the dissemination of public opinion on the internet based on evolutionary game model with incomplete information[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology, 2013, 35(5): 96-101.
[10] 黄宏程, 蒋艾玲, 胡敏. 基于社交网络的信息传播模型分析[J]. 计算机应用研究, 2016, 33(9): 1-6.
HUANG Hong-cheng, Jiang Ai-ling, Hu Min.Analysis of information diffusion model on social network[J]. Application Research of Computers, 2016, 33(9): 1-6.
[11] Z Wei, H Ming-sheng.Influence of opinion leaders on dynamics and diffusion of network public opinion[C]// Management Science and Engineering (ICMSE), 2013 International Conference on, 2013: 139-144.
[12] J Huang, Q Su.A rumor spreading model based on user browsing behavior analysis in microblog[C]// 2013 10th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management, 2013: 170-173.
[13] Borge-Holthoefer J, Meloni S, Goncalves B, et al.Emergence of Influential Spreaders in Modified Rumor Models[J]. Journal of Statistical Physics (S0022-4715), 2013, 151(1-2): 383-393.
[14] Zhao Laijun, Xie Wanlin, Gao H Oliver, et al.A rumor spreading model with variable forgetting rate[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications (S0378-4371), 2013, 392(23): 6146-6154.

基于博弈论和SIRS的热点事件传播仿真研究

Simulation of Hot Event Propagation Based on Game Theory and SIRS

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 9

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	李小莉, 曹策俊, 张帆顺. 进口国规制下医药产品出口安全监管演化仿真[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(9): 2252-2260.
[2]	黄海涛, 刘勤明, 叶春明, 陈翔. 基于区块链技术的政府采购合同融资博弈分析[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(8): 1947-1958.
[3]	李锋, 魏莹. 时序网络视角下网络舆情的演化模型研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(3): 394-403.
[4]	张明新. 国内网络舆情建模与仿真研究综述[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2019, 31(10): 1983-1994.
[5]	杨光明, 时岩钧. 基于演化博弈的长江三峡流域生态补偿机制研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2019, 31(10): 2058-2068.
[6]	狄岚, 顾雨迪. 媒体干预下三分意见群体网络舆情传播模型[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(8): 2958-2965.
[7]	何凌南, 赖凯声, 林仲轩, 熊希灵. 跨学科视角下的网络舆情仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(10): 3616-3624.
[8]	彭本红, 谷晓芬, 鲁倩. 服务型制造项目治理中利益相关者演化博弈研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2017, 29(3): 595-608.
[9]	贺欢欢, 王兴伟, 黄敏. 认知无线电网络的一种演化博弈频谱共享机制[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2016, 28(3): 756-763.