Abstract:

To address the issues of unclear cascading failure propagation mechanisms and difficult-to-quantify vulnerability evolution laws caused by the structural complexity and node heterogeneity of the "Belt and Road" multimodal transport network, a vulnerability assessment method for composite transportation networks integrating physical analogy and improved cascading failure model was proposed. Sub-networks were constructed based on main transportation modes of the Belt and Road, and nodes in the same city were coupled to build a composite transportation network model. An information entropy-Joule's law model was constructed to identify key nodes of the composite network and its sub-networks. A load-capacity cascading failure model conforming to the transportation state was established, and network vulnerability was measured using improved global network weighted efficiency and network connectivity. Dynamic simulations of vulnerability were conducted to analyze the vulnerability evolution under different attack strategies and varied coefficients. The results indicate that the composite transportation network effectively integrates the advantages of sub-networks and reduces system vulnerability; compared with other attack modes, intentional attacks based on node importance cause the network to collapse more rapidly; as the capacity coefficient and overload coefficient increase, the network vulnerability decreases and then gradually stabilizes.

Key words: Belt and Road, composite transportation network, information entropy-Joule's law model, cascading failure, vulnerability analysis