Abstract: The scatter size of the bomblet of cargo projectile is large by comparison with the casualty producing area of single target. In order to promote computational efficiency, and to study optimum spread area of cargo projectile and the most advantageous fire distribution conveniently, mathematical models of damage probability approximate computation of cargo projectile on small rectangular target and circular target with single-shot fire, and correlation fire that firing is on identical data were established by probability analysis. The simulation method was discussed. The optimal dispersion areas were put out according the approximate computation model of single-shot fire. Examples to calculate the damage probability of on rectangular target and circular target were shown. The mathematical models of approximate computation is convenient for theoretical study, and it can be easily calculated, compared with the accuracy model, the difference of both model on damage probability calculation is small.

Key words: cargo projectile, single-shot fire, correlation fire, damage probability, simulation calculation