Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201612006

Journal of System Simulation ›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 2918-2924.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201612006

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Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection

Pan Weijun¹, Luo Xiaolin², Kang Rui¹, Huang Chenyu¹, Xia Zhenghong¹, Qiu Wenbin³

1. Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China;
2. Northwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Xi’an 710082, China;
3. Southwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Chengdu 610202, China

Received:2015-03-24 Revised:2015-09-02 Online:2016-12-08 Published:2020-08-13

Abstract

Abstract: Based on aircraft characteristics, the assessment model of conflict probability at airport surface intersection was studied to ensure the safety of airport ground safety. The engine jet effect distance was introduced to expand the scope of intersection conflict, describing the process of aircraft conflict. The model with the actual operation data was verified, and the speed interval's impact on the model was analyzed and discussed. In the view of three motion states of aircraft, this model analyzed the variations in conflict probability. When speed variation range is 0.5m/s, probability analysis of the conflict is more ideal, and can improve the accuracy of calculating the probability of conflict under the premise of objective reality. The results show that: decelerating and holding avoidance measures can reduce the aircraft conflict probability effectively, thus defending the occurrence of accidents. This method can accurately calculate the conflict probability of aircraft, suitable for aircraft ground conflict alert.

Key words: air traffic management, airport surface intersection, speed range, conflict probability

CLC Number:

V355

Pan Weijun, Luo Xiaolin, Kang Rui, Huang Chenyu, Xia Zhenghong, Qiu Wenbin. Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2016, 28(12): 2918-2924.

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Assessment Model of Conflict Probability at Airport Surface Intersection

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