Multi-agent Simulation Model for COVID-19 Virus Prevention and Control

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0312

Abstract

Abstract: The prevention and control of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is the priority work to maintain the public health security of the world nowadays. The COVID-19 prevention and control model using multi-agent modeling and simulation technology is proposed. The model can simulate the different dynamic development trend of the epidemic under different prevention and control measures. Taking Taiyuan as an example, according to the researched COVID-19 transmission rules, the prevention and control simulation of COVID-19 has been achieved under the designing rule of the interactive infection process and status transition process between various resident agents. Multi-scenario simulation experiments are realized under different policy measures of hospital and government. The experimental results show that the multi-agent modeling method is effective in analyzing the spread of COVID-19 and can provide decision support for city epidemic prevention and control.

Key words: new coronavirus transmission, urban epidemic prevention and control, multi-agent modeling, public health safety, virus prevention and control strategy

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Pan Lihu, Qin Shipeng, Li Xiaowen, Lu Feiping, Yang Fenyu. Multi-agent Simulation Model for COVID-19 Virus Prevention and Control[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(11): 2244-2257.

References

[1] 唐三一,肖燕妮,彭志行,等.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情预测建模、数据融合与防控策略分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(4):480-484.
Tang Sanyi,Xiao Yanni,Peng Zhixing,et al.Prediction Modeling,Data Fusion and Prevention and Control Strategy Analysis of New Coronavirus Pneumonia[J].Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(4):480-484.
[2] Spiteri G,Fielding J,Diercke M,et al.First Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19)in the WHO European Region,24 January to 21 February 2020[J].Eurosurveillance(S1560-7917),2020,25(9):1-6.
[3] Bonaccorsi G,Pierri F,Cinelli M,et al.Evidence of Economic Segregation from Mobility Lockdown During COVID-19 Epidemic[J].SSRN Electronic Journal(S1556-5068),2020.DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3573609
[4] 文军.直面新冠肺炎:风险社会的社区治理及其疫情防控[J].杭州师范大学学报(社会科学版),2020,42(2):3-11.
Wen Jun.Facing New Coronary Pneumonia:Community Governance in Risk Society and Prevention and Control of Epidemic Situation[J].Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Social Science Edition),2020,42(2):3-11.
[5] Alzahrani S I,Aljamaan I A,Al-Fakih E A.Forecasting the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using ARIMA Prediction Model Under Current Public Health Interventions[J].Journal of Infection and Public Health(S1876-0341),2020,13(7):914-919.
[6] 李昊,段德光,陶学强,等.传染病动力学模型及其在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情仿真预测中的应用综述[J].医疗卫生装备,2020,41(3):7-12.
Li Hao,Duan Deguang,Tao Xueqiang,et al.Infectious Disease Dynamic Model and Its Application in the Simulation Prediction of New Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic Situation[J].Medical and Health Equipment,2020,41(3):7-12.
[7] César V Munayco,Tariq A,Rothenberg R,et al.Early Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in a Southern Hemisphere Setting:Lima-Peru:February 29th-March 30th,2020[J].Infectious Disease Modelling(S2468-0427),2020,5(5):338-345.
[8] Ramírez-Aldana R,Gomez-Verjan J,Bello-Chavolla O,et al.Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Iran:Insights Into Geographical and Structural Transmission Determinants at a Province level[J].medRxiv,2020,DOI:10.1101/2020.04.19.20071605.
[9] 陈恩,段德光,李昊,等.一种基于WPF 方法的 SEIR传染病动力学模型仿真研究[J].医疗卫生装备,2020,41(3):1-6.
Chen En,Duan Deguang,Li Hao,et al.A Simulation Study of SEIR Epidemic Dynamic Model Based on WPF Method[J].Medical and Health Equipment,2020,41(3):1-6
[10] Grange J M L,Dickinson S J,Davis J R J.Capacity Building During COVID-19:Utilising South Africa's Underutilised International Medical Graduates[J].South African Medical Journal(S0256-9574),2020,110(5).DOI:10.7196/SAMJ.2020.v110i5.14767.
[11] 刘涛,黎夏,刘萌伟.传染病时空传播的多智能体仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报,2009,21(18):5874-5877.
Liu Tao,Li Xia,Liu Mengwei.Multi-agent Simulation Research on the Spatiotemporal Propagation of Infectious Diseases[J].Journal of System Simulation,2009,21(18):5874-5877.
[12] Klein I,Levy N,Ben-Elia E.An Agent-based Model of the Emergence of Cooperation and a Fair and Stable System Optimum Using ATIS on a Simple Road Network[J].Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies(S0968-090X),2018,86(1):183-201.
[13] Rubio-Pérez I,Badía J M,Mora-Rillo M,et al.COVID-19:Key Concepts for the Surgeon[J].Cirugía Espaola(English Edition)(S0009-739X),2020,98(6):310-319.
[14] 李锋,魏莹.时序网络视角下网络舆情的演化模型研究[J].系统仿真学报,2020,32(3):394-403.
Li Feng,Wei Ying.Research on the Evolution Model of Network Public Opinion from the Perspective of Time Series Network[J].Journal of System Simulation,2020,32(3):394-403.
[15] Farid A M.Multi-Agent System Design Principles for Resilient Coordination & Control of Future Power Systems[J].Intelligent Industrial Systems(S2363-6912),2015,1(3):255-269.
[16] 潘理虎,李晓文,秦世鹏,等.城市安全宜居度变化多智能体仿真模型[J].系统仿真学报,2019,31(7):1321-1333.
Pan Lihu,Li Xiaowen,Qin Shipeng,et al.Multi-agent Simulation Model of Changes in Urban Safety Livability[J].Journal of System Simulation,2019,31(7):1321-1333.
[17] Derek K Chu,Elie A Akl,Stephanie Duda,et al.Physical Distancing,Face Masks,and Eye Protection to Prevent Person-to-person Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19:a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis[J].The Lancet(S0140-6736),DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31142-9.
[18] Zhai P,Ding Y B,Wu X,et al.The Epidemiology,Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19[J].International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents(S0924-8579),2020,55(5):2-13.
[19] Li Z Q,Yang H,Zhang K P,et al.Distributed Model Predictive Control Based on Multi-agent Model for Electric Multiple Units[J].Acta Atuomatica Sinica(S0254-4156),2014,40(11):2626-2631.
[20] 谷润平,贾旭颖,赵向领,等.民航货机装载优化准确建模仿真研究[J].计算机仿真,2019,36(3):20-26.
Gu Runping,Jia Xuying,Zhao Xiangling,et al.Research on Accurate Modeling and Simulation of Civil Aviation Cargo Aircraft Loading Optimization[J].Computer Simulation,2019,36(3):20-26.
[21] Li C J,Liu G P.Data-driven Consensus for Non-linear Networked multi-agent Systems with Switching Topology and Time-varying Delays[J].IET(S1751-8628),2018,12(12):1773-1779.
[22] 方峻.基于元胞自动机的行人微观仿真模型研究与应用[D].北京:清华大学,2012.
Fang Jun.Research on Theory and Application of Micro-simulation Model of Pedestrian Based on Cellular Automata [D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2012.
[23] 郭谨一,刘爽,陈绍宽,等.行人运动仿真研究综述[J].系统仿真学报,2008,20(9):2237-2242.
Guo Jinyi,Liu Shuang,Chen Shaokuan,et al.Review of Pedestrian Motion Simulation Research[J].Journal of System Simulation,2008,20(9):2237-2242.
[24] Mkolesia A.On the Estimation of a Univariate Gaussian Distribution:A Comparative Approach[J].Open Journal of Statistics(S2161-718X),2015,5(5):445-454.
[25] Melika L,Michael R H,Nima R.COVID-19:Transmission,Prevention,and Potential Therapeutic Opportunities[J] Clinica Chimica Acta(S0009-8981),2020,508(5):254-266.
[26] North M J,Collier N T,Ozik J,et al.Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling with Repast Simphony[J].Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling(S2194-3206),2013,1(1):1-26.
[27] Pan L H,Li X W,Qin S P,et al.A Multi-agent Model of Changes in Urban Safety Livability[J].Simulation:Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International(S0037-5497),2020,28(1):1-17.