Abstract: The sudden and uncertainties of the flood disaster make it difficult to collect large sample data for forecasting the demand of emergency materials quickly and accurately. Based on this, this paper proposes an improved GM (1,1) dynamic forecasting model based on the gray system theory; constructs the dynamic demand model of emergency materials in combination with the inventory management method; and takes the real flood disaster in March 2016 as a case study. The validity of the model proposed in this paper is verified. The results show that the improved GM (1,1) model is feasible and practicable, and has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional GM (1,1) model.

Key words: improved GM (1,1) model, flood disaster, dynamic forecasting, inventory management