电价补贴退坡趋势下户用光伏发展演化的仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066

系统仿真学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 1397-1405.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0066

电价补贴退坡趋势下户用光伏发展演化的仿真研究

张力菠¹, 葛禄璐¹, 陈昌奇¹, 汤铭端²

1.南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,能源软科学研究中心,江苏南京 211106;
2.中国航天科工集团有限公司第二研究院,北京 100854

收稿日期:2020-02-12 修回日期:2020-03-29 出版日期:2021-06-18 发布日期:2021-06-23
作者简介:张力菠(1973-),男,博士,副教授,研究方向为能源﹣经济﹣环境系统建模仿真。E-mail：zlbzhang@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(771774081); 江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2017ZDIXM082); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(NR2019012)

Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff

Zhang Libo¹, Ge Lulu¹, Chen Changqi¹, Tang Mingduan²

1. College of Economics & Management, Energy Soft Science Research Center, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;;
2. The Second Research Academy of CASIC, Beijing 100854, China

Received:2020-02-12 Revised:2020-03-29 Online:2021-06-18 Published:2021-06-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 户用分布式光伏逐渐成为我国光伏发展的重要力量,面临上网电价补贴退坡的大趋势,采用系统动力学方法,构建了户用光伏发展的因果环路模型,分析了相关因素及其反馈机制,进一步构建了系统流图模型,对基于补贴退坡的多种组合情景下户用光伏的投资回报、装机容量及新增装机FIT补贴成本的发展演化进行了动态仿真。结果显示,目前户用光伏具备补贴退坡条件,未来3年内可退至0.05~0.1元/(kW·h)并逐步取消补贴;退坡过程需综合考虑FIT退坡幅度、纳入补贴的装机规模、装机目标及补贴成本,以促进我国户用光伏的可持续发展。

关键词: 户用分布式光伏, 装机容量, 投资回报率, 补贴成本, 系统动力学

Abstract: Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (R-DPVG) has become the important developing force of PV generation in China. As the declining of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), system dynamics method is used to construct a causal loop model for R-DPVG’s development, and relevant factors and their feedback mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. Then a stock-flow model is build, and the ROI, installed capacity, and policy subsidy costs of R-DPVG are simulated under some combined scenarios based on declining FIT. The simulation proves R-DPVG’s FIT will be reduced to 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan/(kW?h) in the next three years till cancelled. FIT cutting amplitude, capacity and targets of installation and cost of the FIT subsidy should be comprehensively considered in policy-making to promote R-DPVG’s sustainable development in China.

Key words: R-DPVG, accumulated installation capacity, ROI, costs of FIT policy, system dynamics

中图分类号:

张力菠, 葛禄璐, 陈昌奇, 汤铭端. 电价补贴退坡趋势下户用光伏发展演化的仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(6): 1397-1405.

Zhang Libo, Ge Lulu, Chen Changqi, Tang Mingduan. Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(6): 1397-1405.

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电价补贴退坡趋势下户用光伏发展演化的仿真研究

Simulation on the Development of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Declining Trend of Feed-in-Tariff

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