基于系统动力学的北京供需水关系仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-FZ0291E

系统仿真学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 2790-2801.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-FZ0291E

基于系统动力学的北京供需水关系仿真研究

罗龙溪¹, 吴建平¹, 陈云², 徐哲²

1. 清华大学土木工程系,北京 100084;
2. 杭州电子科技大学,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2019-05-20 修回日期:2019-07-07 发布日期:2019-12-13

System Dynamics Modeling for Simulation of Water Supply and Demand Relationship in Beijing

Luo Longxi¹, Wu Jianping¹, Chen Yun², Xu Zhe²

1. School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2019-05-20 Revised:2019-07-07 Published:2019-12-13
About author:Luo Longxi (1991), Male, Hunan, Ph.D., Postdoc, research direction: ITS, driving behavior, deep learning and computer vision; Wu Jianping(1957-), Male, Zhejiang, Ph.D., Professor, research direction: traffic simulation, ITS, and sustainable systems.
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant (U1509205, U1709212)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 北京是一个大都市,是中国的政治和教育中心。然而,北京地处降水量较低的地区,一直需要努力才能提供勉强够的水资源以满足其日益增长的用水需求。研究了北京市水资源供需平衡的历史和未来趋势。北京的水务历史数据得以收集和整理,并被用于研究北京供需水的历史行为。系统动力学（SD）建模可以模拟供水系统中复杂的综合关系。一个SD模型根据整理的历史数据得以构建。通过比较模拟数据与历史数据,北京的供需水关系SD模型的有效性得以验证和校正。验证后的SD模型被用于预测未来城市水平衡的变化。

关键词: 系统动力学建模, 供需水平衡, 水资源短缺, 北京

Abstract: Beijing is a metropolis and the center of politics and education of China. However, located in the region with a low level of rainfall, Beijing has been struggling with supplying water resources to meet its growing demand. The past and future trend of the water supply and demand balance in Beijing is studied. Historical data is collected and compiled for learning its past behaviors. The system dynamics (SD) modeling can simulate the complicated and integrated relationships in water supply and demand system. An SD model is then constructed based on compiled historical data. The SD model is validated by comparing simulated data with historical data before it is used for forecasting future changes in the water balance of the city.

Key words: system dynamics modeling, water supply and demand balance, water shortage, Beijing

中图分类号:

TP391.9

罗龙溪, 吴建平, 陈云, 徐哲. 基于系统动力学的北京供需水关系仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2019, 31(12): 2790-2801.

Luo Longxi, Wu Jianping, Chen Yun, Xu Zhe. System Dynamics Modeling for Simulation of Water Supply and Demand Relationship in Beijing[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(12): 2790-2801.

参考文献

[1] Deng Y, Brombal D, Farah P D, et al.China's water environmental management towards institutional integration. A review of current progress and constraints vis-a-vis the European experience[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production (S0959-6526), 2016, 113: 285-298.
[2] Forrester J W.System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR[J]. System Dynamics Review (S0883-7066), 1994, 10(2-3): 245-256.
[3] Forrester J W.Systems Analysis as a Tool for Urban Planning[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics (S0536-1567), 1970, 6(4): 258-265.
[4] Winz I, Brierley G, Trowsdale S.The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management[J]. Water Resources Management (S1573-1650), 2009, 23(7): 1301-1323.
[5] Hassanzadeh E, Elshorbagy A, Wheater H, et al.Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model for Saskatchewan, Canada[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software (S1364-8152), 2014, 58: 12-26.
[6] Wei T, Lou I, Yang Z, et al.A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences (S1001-0742), 2016, 50: 117-126.
[7] Li T, Yang S, Tan M.Simulation and optimization of water supply and demand balance in Shenzhen: A system dynamics approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production (S0959-6526), 2019, 207: 882-893.
[8] Yun Yi, Zou Zhihong, Wang Huiwen.Analysis on Beijing’s Urban Water Resource Demand-Supply System[J]. Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory (S1000-0984), 2011, 41(12): 129-136.
[9] Wu Jingdong, Xiong Jianxin, Huang Bingbin.Status and Countermeasures of the Sludge Treatment and Disposal in Beijing Municipal Sewage Treatment Plants[J]. Beijing Water (S1673-4637), 2010(5): 4-6.
[10] Li Y, Xiong W, Zhang W, et al.Life cycle assessment of water supply alternatives in water-receiving areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China[J]. Water Research (S0043-1354), 2016, 89: 9-19.
[11] Wei D.Beijing water resources and the south to north water diversion project[J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (S0315-1468), 2005, 32(1): 159-163.
[12] Zhu Y P, Zhang H P, Chen L, et al.Influence of the South-North Water Diversion Project and the mitigation projects on the water quality of Han River[J]. Science of The Total Environment (S0048-9697), 2008, 406(1): 57-68.
[13] Zhang Q.The South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Strategy[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (S1093-474X), 2009, 45(5): 1238-1247.

基于系统动力学的北京供需水关系仿真研究

System Dynamics Modeling for Simulation of Water Supply and Demand Relationship in Beijing

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 1

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价