Interaction Between Virus Transmission Variation and Population Crossover Activity and Diffusion Model

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0478

Abstract

Abstract:

In view of the current high incidence of human-to-human infectious viruses, a multi-agent simulation and deduction model was proposed and designed based on the random characteristics of virus transmission variation and the influence of population crossover activity. The external pathogenicity and infectious characteristics of the virus and the external activities and immune characteristics of the human were quantified, and the interdependence and confrontation process between the virus and the human were modeled. The development trends and statistical characteristics of a large number of viruses and humans were deduced through the model. The experimental analysis reveals that the randomness of the variation direction of a single virus does not affect the certainty of the development direction of the virus population variation. In other words, the pathogenicity intensity of the virus population continues to decrease until it stabilizes in the low-value range, and the infectious intensity of the virus population continues to increase until it stabilizes in the high-value range. The key external parameters that affect the virus transmission variation process are given, which can provide policy recommendations for the early prevention and control of highly pathogenic viruses.

Key words: virus transmission model, multi-agent simulation, prevention and control strategies, development trend of epidemic virus characteristics, genetic variation

CLC Number:

TP391.9

Yu Lei, Zhu Xichou, Liao Huaming, Guo Jiafeng, Cheng Xueqi. Interaction Between Virus Transmission Variation and Population Crossover Activity and Diffusion Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(7): 1713-1728.

Figures/Tables 14

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infect_inten	概率分布/%
加1或减1	70
加2或减2	20
加3或减3	5
加4或减4	3
加5或减5	1
加6或减6	0.7
加7或减7	0.3
其他	0

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