基于影响图对策的仿真元模型构造及使用方法

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201808006

系统仿真学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 2858-2863.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201808006

基于影响图对策的仿真元模型构造及使用方法

钟麟¹, 佟明安², 李盛¹

1. 西京学院控制工程学院,陕西西安 710123;
2. 西北工业大学,电子信息学院, 陕西西安 710072

收稿日期:2016-11-03 出版日期:2018-08-10 发布日期:2019-01-08
第一作者简介:钟麟(1975-),男,江西宜春,博士,讲师,研究方向为复杂系统建模等;佟明安(1936-),男,辽宁,教授,研究方向航空火力控制等;李盛(1972-),男,甘肃兰州,博士,副教授,研究方向为系统建模、数据处理等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(61371163)

Construction and Utilization of Simulation Meta-model Based on Influence Diagram Game

Zhong Lin¹, Tong Mingan², Li Sheng¹

1. College of Control Engineering, Xijing University, Xi'an 710123, China;
2. Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, China

Received:2016-11-03 Online:2018-08-10 Published:2019-01-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对目前仿真元模型的不足,引入动态影响图对策到作为仿真元模型,提出了动态影响图对策构造步骤及使用方法。仿真状态、决策方案和决策目标分别用机会结点、决策结点和效用结点表示,对手的行为采用决策者相似的决策结点进行建模。构造基于影响图对策元模型的步骤包括选择变量和确定仿真数据、确定影响图对策的拓扑结构和概率表以及检验拓扑结构和概率表。通过空战仿真实例,表明该元模型在仿真的时间演变、假设分析和最优决策三方面的应用效果较好,克服了当前元模型的不足。

关键词: 元模型, 动态影响图对策, 离散事件, 假设分析

Abstract: To overcome the shortcomings of the meta-model, the dynamic influence diagram game is used as simulation meta-model. A construction process and the utilization for structured dynamic influence diagram game (DIDG) are presented. The necessary simulation data are gathered for the construction of a DIDG that presents the changes in simulation state with chance nodes. The decision alternatives and objectives of the decision problem are included in the DIDG as decision and utility nodes. The adversary’s action is represented by an explicit decision node in which case an influence diagram game results. The constructed DIDG is solved to find the optimal both sides’ decision alternatives that maximize the expected value of the utility function. The DIDG is also used for studying the evolution of the simulation, conducting what-if analyses, and solving optimal strategies of the game as well as studying the strategies’ effects on the evolution of simulation. The simulation results show the construction of DIDG from simulation data and their utilization in the analysis of decision problems are feasible and effective.

Key words: meta-model, dynamic influence diagram game, discrete event, what-if analysis

中图分类号:

TP391.9

钟麟,佟明安,李盛 . 基于影响图对策的仿真元模型构造及使用方法[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(8): 2858-2863.

Zhong Lin,Tong Mingan,Li Sheng . Construction and Utilization of Simulation Meta-model Based on Influence Diagram Game[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(8): 2858-2863.

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基于影响图对策的仿真元模型构造及使用方法

Construction and Utilization of Simulation Meta-model Based on Influence Diagram Game

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