面向飞机装配批架次完工时间的仿真预测方法

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0337

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对传统离散事件仿真方法缺乏对产品间差异化分析的局限性，提出一种面向飞机装配批架次作业过程的仿真预测方法。围绕飞机架次标签，研究对批架次装配作业过程中各类基本要素与交互关系的形式化定义，由此完成站位、整线仿真模型的构建；研究支持产品差异化分析的仿真推进框架与执行机制；以仿真结果数据为基础，提出基于区间估计法的架次完工时间预测方法。实验结果表明：该方法能准确地输出各架次预计完工时间的置信区间，为现场提供可靠的评估依据。

关键词: 飞机装配, 批架次, 离散事件仿真, 仿真过程控制, 预计完工时间

Abstract:

Aiming at the product differentiation analysis limitation of traditional discrete event simulation method, a simulation prediction method for aircraft assembly process with batch and sortie is proposed. Around the aircraft sortie number, the formal definition of various basic elements and interactions in the assembly process with batch and sortie is studied, and the construction of station and whole line simulation model is carried out. The simulation promotion framework and execution mechanism supporting the product differentiation analysis are studied. Based on the simulation results, a method for predicting the completion time of sorties based on interval estimation method is proposed. The test results of the historical sorties data show that the proposed simulation prediction method can accurately output the confidence interval of the estimated completion time of each sortie, and can provide the reliable evaluation for the site.

Key words: aircraft assembly, batch and sortie, discrete event simulation, simulation process control, estimated completion time

中图分类号:

TP391.9

蒋昌健,樊虎,罗陶等 . 面向飞机装配批架次完工时间的仿真预测方法[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2024, 36(6): 1404-1413.

Jiang Changjian,Fan Hu,Luo Tao,et al . Completion Time Simulation Prediction Method for Aircraft Assembly Process with Batch and Sortie[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2024, 36(6): 1404-1413.

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序号随机事件	事件发生分布	持续时间分布
工时波动	必然发生	正态分布
设备故障	泊松分布	指数分布
工人请假	泊松分布	指数分布
物料供应频率波动	必然发生	正态分布

架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间	架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间
X01	131.43	23.25	(129.63, 133.23)	X04	209.76	15.78	(208.28, 211.24)
X02	160.84	24.99	(158.98, 162.70)	X05	237.25	16.33	(235.74, 238.76)
X03	184.10	12.57	(182.78, 185.42)	X06	261.93	13.26	(260.57, 263.29)

架次	均值	方差	天数置信区间	转化为日期的置信区间	历史架次的实际完工日期
X01	130.63	12.07	(130.13, 131.13)	(2022-09-03, 2022-09-04)	2022-09-03
X02	157.51	11.44	(157.03, 158.02)	(2022-10-15, 2022-10-16)	2022-10-16
X03	183.87	11.75	(183.38, 184.36)	(2022-11-28, 2022-11-29)	2022-12-01
X04	208.98	11.83	(208.49, 209.47)	(2023-01-10, 2023-01-11)	2023-01-09
X05	236.62	11.37	(236.14, 237.10)	(2023-02-24, 2023-02-25)	2023-02-25
X06	260.80	11.89	(260.31, 261.29)	(2023-03-29, 2023-03-30)	2023-03-27

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