考虑源荷不确定性和线性碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.25-0521

系统仿真学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (10): 2485-2499.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.25-0521

• 新型电力系统和综合能源系统仿真技术 • 上一篇

考虑源荷不确定性和线性碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

钟华平¹, 范钰波², 税纪钧³, 王丹豪¹, 彭道刚¹

^1.上海电力大学自动化工程学院，上海 200090
^2.国网上海市电力公司电力科学研究院，上海 200437
^3.香港理工大学电机及电子工程学系，香港 999077

收稿日期:2025-06-06 修回日期:2025-08-16 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-10-21
通讯作者: 彭道刚
第一作者简介:钟华平(2001-)，男，硕士生，研究方向为虚拟电厂、综合智慧能源等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(62373241);国网上海市电力公司科技项目(52094024000J)

Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Source-load Uncertainty and Linear Carbon Trading

Zhong Huaping¹, Fan Yubo², Shui Jijun³, Wang Danhao¹, Peng Daogang¹

^1.College of Automation Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
^2.State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company Electric Power Research Institute, Shanghai 200437, China
^3.Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China

Received:2025-06-06 Revised:2025-08-16 Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-10-21
Contact: Peng Daogang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为克服源荷不确定性给综合能源系统调度带来的影响，以及体现碳交易价格随交易量变化的灵活性，提出一种考虑源荷不确定性和线性碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度方法。对综合能源系统内设备进行建模，采用非参数核密度估计法获取各时段的概率密度函数，通过蒙特卡罗模拟生成场景集，并计算各场景的概率；针对风光出力峰值和波动的时间偏移，选择采用动态时间规整（DTW）距离+K-medoids聚类的场景削减方法对场景集进行处理，得到典型场景和概率；设计了一种由阶梯式碳交易机制变形而来的线性碳交易机制，并建立综合能源系统优化调度模型。仿真结果表明：所提方法可以有效促进综合能源系统低碳运行。

关键词: 综合能源系统, 源荷不确定性, 碳交易机制, 非参数核密度估计法, 动态时间规整距离

Abstract:

In order to overcome the impact of source-load uncertainty on the scheduling of integrated energy systems (IES) and reflect the flexibility of the carbon trading price with the change in trading volume, an optimal scheduling method for integrated energy systems considering source-load uncertainty and linear carbon trading was proposed. The equipment within the IES was modeled, and nonparametric kernel density estimation was used to obtain the probability density function for each time period, generating the set of scenes through Monte Carlo simulation and calculating the probability of each scene. For the time shift of wind and solar output peaks and fluctuations, the scene set was processed using a scene reduction method that integrated the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance and K-medoids clustering to obtain the typical scenes and probabilities.Alinear carbon trading mechanism was designed, which was derived from the ladder carbon trading mechanism, and an IES optimization scheduling model was established. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively promote the low-carbon operation of the IES.

Key words: integrated energy system, source-load uncertainty, carbon trading mechanism, nonparametric kernel density estimation method, dynamic time warping distance

中图分类号:

TP391.9

钟华平,范钰波,税纪钧等 . 考虑源荷不确定性和线性碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2025, 37(10): 2485-2499.

Zhong Huaping,Fan Yubo,Shui Jijun,et al . Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Source-load Uncertainty and Linear Carbon Trading[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2025, 37(10): 2485-2499.

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现有研究	场景生成方法	初始场景概率	场景削减方法
文献[5]	拉丁超立方抽样	概率均等	Kantorovich距离
文献[24]	韦伯分布和贝塔分布、蒙特卡罗	概率均等	曼哈顿距离、概率距离
文献[29]	蒙特卡罗	概率均等	欧式距离、K-means、同步回代、FCM聚类
本文	核密度估计法、蒙特卡罗	非等概率	DTW、K-medoids聚类

分类	时段	价格/(元/kW·h)
峰	12:00—15:00	1.22
峰	18:00—21:00	1.22
平	07:00—12:00	0.69
	15:00—18:00
	21:00—22:00
谷	00:00—07:00	0.40
谷	22:00—24:00	0.40

设备类型	参数	数值
柴油发电机组 (DG)	油电转化系数	4.6
	额定功率/kW	1 000
	运维系数	0.05
	CO₂排放系数/(kg/kW·h)	0.74
热电联产机组 (CHP)	电\热比	0.6\0.35
	额定功率/kW	1000
	运维系数	0.04
	电功率排放系数/(kg/kW·h)	0.580
	单位热电功率排放比	0.6
燃气锅炉 (GB)	制热效率	0.72
	额定功率/kW	600
	运维系数	0.03
	CO₂排放系数/(kg/kW·h)	0.36
电转气设备 (P2G)	工作效率	0.6
	气电比/(m³/kW·h)	0.25
	额定功率/kW	600
	运维系数	0.028
电锅炉 (EB)	制热效率	0.95
	额定功率/kW	300
	运维系数	0.021

参数	储能柜	蓄热罐	储气罐
自损率	0.05	0.10	0.02
充\放能效率	0.92\0.90	0.95\0.85	0.95\0.95
最大充\放能功率/kW	400\300	350\300	300\250
充\放能运维系数	0.018\0.016	0.016\0.014	0.015\0.013
平均充放次数	12	—	12
爬坡上限/kW	500	400	500
最大容量/(kW·h)	1 000	800	1 000
最小安全容量/(kW·h)	100	50	100
最大安全容量/(kW·h)	950	750	950

场景	总成本/元	碳排放/kg	P2G消耗量/kg	免费碳配额/kg	碳交易量/kg
I	21 315.06	22 716.22	8 977.28	9 090.15	4 648.78
II	21 774.74	18 627.67	8 945.82	7 299.02	2 382.83
III	20 927.43	22 986.87	8 977.28	9 205.98	4 803.60

考虑源荷不确定性和线性碳交易的综合能源系统优化调度

Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Energy Systems Considering Source-load Uncertainty and Linear Carbon Trading

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