智能推演综述：博弈论视角下的战术战役兵棋与战略博弈

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0300

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推演是一项研究国家安全与竞争、军事冲突与战争、危机管控等重大战略问题的预实践活动。智能推演系统需要人工智能技术的赋能。简要概述了智能博弈的研究进展，推演的演进脉络，智能化兵棋推演及战略博弈推演方法；从博弈论的视角切入，分析了面向智能推演的博弈问题模型，梳理了智能兵棋推演的应用模式、战略博弈推演的组织方式；提出了基于云原生的智能推演服务化架构，面向云边端分布式对抗探索了未来决策云预训练方法，面向危机事件认知构建了战略博弈推演元博弈分析框架。期望为智能博弈推演方面的理论与工具等研究提供科学有效的参考，为新一代智能化云边协同指控提供理论与技术支撑。

关键词: 兵棋推演, 战略博弈, 元博弈, 冲突分析, 对抗分析, 云原生, 预训练

Abstract:

Wargaming is a pre-practice activity to study national security and competition, military conflict and war, crisis management, and other major strategic issues. An intelligent wargaming system needs the ability of artificial intelligence technology. This paper briefly summarizes the research progress of intelligent game, the evolution of wargaming, intelligent wargaming, and strategic gaming methods. From the perspective of game theory, it analyzes the game problem model for intelligent wargaming and sorts out the application mode of intelligent wargaming and the organization mode of a strategic game. An intelligent wargaming service-oriented architecture based on cloud native is proposed. Pre-training method for future decision-making cloud is explored for distributed confrontation at cloud edge, and a meta-game analysis framework for strategic wargaming is constructed for cognition of crisis events. It is expected to provide a scientific and effective reference for the research on the theory and tools of intelligent wargaming and offer theoretical and technical support for the new generation of intelligent cloud-edge cooperative command and control.

Key words: wargaming, strategic game, meta-game, conflict analysis, confrontation analysis, cloud native, pre-training

中图分类号:

TP391

罗俊仁,张万鹏,项凤涛等 . 智能推演综述：博弈论视角下的战术战役兵棋与战略博弈[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2023, 35(9): 1871-1894.

Luo Junren,Zhang Wanpeng,Xiang Fengtao,et al . Survey on Intelligent Wargaming: Tactical & Campaign Wargame and Strategic Game from Game-Theoretic Perspective[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(9): 1871-1894.

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博弈模型	行为主体	角色	典型模型	典型应用场景	可扩展性
图博弈	决策者(Decision-Maker)	指挥员	冲突分析与消解	大群体决策	群组(Group)
序贯博弈	参与方(Player)	参谋	不完美信息博弈	序贯决策	种群(Population)
马尔可夫博弈	行为实体(Entity)	战斗员	部分可观马尔可夫博弈	异构实体协同决策	集群(Swarm)

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