基于社会力模型的客船人员疏散仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0226

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究群组行为和不同疏散方式对客船人员疏散过程的影响，提出了乘客到达集合站的3种疏散方式，分析了有无群组情况下该艘乘客的集合时间、拥堵区域和拥堵形成时刻，以及持续时间。仿真结果表明：群组行为对乘客的集合时间具有较为显著的影响，并增大集合时间的变化范围，而有无群组行为情况下的拥堵区域基本相同。而群组行为对拥堵形成时刻以及持续时间的影响较为复杂，与区域的位置以及不同区域内群组组员的响应时间有较大关系。需结合事故类型及严重程度来对客船人员疏散过程进行分析，确定不同的疏散方式。

关键词: 客船安全, 社会力模型, 智能体模型, 拥堵区域, 疏散方式

Abstract:

Aiming at the influence of group behavior and different evacuation methods on the passenger ship evacuation process. Three evacuation methods of passengers arriving at the assembly stations with and without group behavior are provided, and the passenger assembly time, congestion area, congestion timing and duration are analyzed. The simulation results show that the group behavior has a significant effect on the passenger assembly time and increases the variation range of the passenger assembly time, and the congestion area with and without group behavior remains the same. The influences of group behavior on the congestion timing and duration are complicated, which are associated with the location of the congestion area and the response time of the group members. Evacuation analysis on the passenger ship must consider the type and severity of the accidents. The study provides a theory and decision making support for the evacuation safety design and evaluation of the passengers in the large passenger ships.

Key words: passenger ship safety, social force model, agent model, congestion area, evacuation mode

中图分类号:

TP391.9

谢启苗, 郭帅帅. 基于社会力模型的客船人员疏散仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2022, 34(8): 1710-1724.

Qimiao Xie, Shuaishuai Guo. Research on Passenger Ship Evacuation Simulation Based on Social Force Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(8): 1710-1724.

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楼梯	连接甲板(下层)	连接甲板(上层)	楼梯宽度/m
1和5	1	2	1.00
2和6	1	2	1.35
6和9	2	3	1.35
3和7	1	2	1.35
7和10	2	3	1.20
7和8	1	2	1.35

乘客初始分布位置	人数
总人口	1 014
甲板-1 吧台区	59
甲板-1 储物区	17
甲板-1 普通区	46
甲板-1 购物区	9
甲板-2 吧台区	52
甲板-2 座位区	5
甲板-2 普通区	46
甲板-2 餐厅区	251
甲板-3 座位区	107
甲板-1 集合站 A	131
甲板-1 集合站 B	55
甲板-1 集合站 C	45
甲板-2 集合站 D	191

群组人数	占总人数比例/%
1	8.8
2	15.1
3~6	40.1
7~11	36.0

参数	疏散方式
参数	I	II	III
均值/s	581.08	1 487.79	928.12
标准差/s	26.18	29.27	47.67
方差/s²	685.34	856.57	2 272.66
最小值/s	500	1 406	775
中位数/s	579	1 488	931
最大值/s	674	1 580	1 045
极差/s	174	802	270
P₅/s	540	1 440	844
P₅₀/s	579	1 488	931
P₉₅/s	628	1 539	1 006
均值/s	581.08	1 487.79	928.12

拥堵区域	拥堵持续时间/s	占比总疏散时间/%
I-a	270	43.03
II-a	460	50.52
II-b	170	18.67
III-a	350	34.79
III-b	320	31.81