广义随机系统动力学相关性分析模型

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.201801009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决存在随机现象的系统动力学模拟与相关性分析问题,将广义随机Petri网(GSPN)进行扩展,建立广义随机函数Petri网GSFPN,将GSFPN与SD模型相结合,提出了一种GSFPN-SD模型,该模型具有如下优势：(1) 通过变迁的激发,使得状态的演变的过程更明确;(2) 系统变化动态性是通过事件激发的,从而更逼真地描述了复杂系统的自主动态演变行为;(3) 变迁的激发是通过托肯的移动而实现的,从而实现了系统可以有条件或无条件转移;(4) 可以实现部分变迁具有延时特征,而其他变迁没有延时特征的系统动力学模拟与相关性分析。例子研究表明,GSFPN-SD模型要比SD模型具有更强、更全面对复杂系统的描述模拟与相关性分析能力。

关键词: 系统动力学, Petri网, 系统模拟, 相关性分析, 广义随机Petri网

Abstract: In order to solve the problem of system dynamics (SD) simulation and correlation analysis of complex system containing random possesses, the generalized stochastic Petri-net (GSPN) is expanded into the generalized stochastic function Petri-net (GSFPN), and a GSFPN-SD model is proposed by combining GSFPN and SD. The GSFPN-SD model has the following advantages: (1) the process of state evolution is more clear by firing transits; (2) it describes the autonomous dynamic evolution of complex system more realistically as system’s dynamic change is driven by events; (3) transits are fired by tokens' movement, thus the system states can conditionally or unconditionally transit; (4) dynamic simulation and correlation analysis of complicated systems containing some delayed transits possess can be executed. Case studies show that, compared with SD, the GSFPN-SD model has stronger and more comprehensive ability of descripting the simulation and correlation analysis of complex system.

Key words: system dynamics, Petri-net, system simulation, correlation analysis, generalized stochastic Petri-net

中图分类号:

TP391.9

黄光球, 陆秋琴. 广义随机系统动力学相关性分析模型[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(1): 69-79.

Huang Guangqiu, Lu Qiuqin. Correlation Analysis Model of Generalized Stochastic System Dynamics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2018, 30(1): 69-79.

参考文献

[1] Forrester J W.Industrial Dynamics[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA: The MIT Press, 1961.
[2] 钟永光, 贾晓菁, 钱颖, 等. 系统动力学[M]. 2版. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2015.ZHONG Yong-guang, JIA Xiao-jing, QIAN Ying, et al. System Dynamics[M]. Second Edition. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2015.
[3] 陈国卫, 金家善, 耿俊豹. 系统动力学应用研究综述[J]. 控制工程, 2012, 19(6): 921-928. CHEN Guo-wei, JIN Jia-shan, GENG Jun-bao. Application research overview of system dynamics[J]. Control Engineering of China, 2012, 19(6): 921-928.
[4] 马国丰, 陆居一. 国内外系统动力学研究综述[J]. 经济研究导刊, 2013 (6): 218-220.MA Guo-feng, LU Ju-yi. Research overview of system dynamics home and abroad [J]. Economic Research Guide, 2013 (6): 218-220.
[5] Erma Suryani, Shuo-Yan Chou, Chih-Hsien Chen.Air passenger demand forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework[J]. Expert Systems with Applications(S0957-4174), 2010, 37(3): 2324-2339.
[6] 陈海涛. 基于系统动力学的中国石油需求系统模型及预测[J]. 统计与决策, 2010, 43(20): 98-101. CHEN Hai-tao. System model and forecast of oil demand of China based on system dynamics[J]. Statistics and Decision-making, 2010, 43(20): 98-101.
[7] 王海燕, 刘鲁, 杨方廷, 等. 基于SD的粮食预测和政策仿真模型研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2009, 21(10): 3079-3083. WANG Hai-yan, LIU Lu, YANG Fang-ting, et al. System dynamics modeling of China’s grain Forecasting and policy simulation[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2009, 21(10): 3079-3083.
[8] 侯剑. 基于系统动力学的港口经济可持续发展[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010, 30(1): 56-61. HOU Jian. Sustainable development of port economics based on system dynamics[J]. System Engineerings: Theory and Practice, 2010, 30(1): 56-61.
[9] Krystyna Stave.Participatory system dynamics modeling for sustainable environmental management: Observations from four cases[J]. Sustainability (S2071-1050), 2010, 23(2): 2762-2784.
[10] Cheng Qi, Ni-Bin Chang.System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts[J]. Journal of Environmental Management(S0301-4797), 2011, 92(6): 1628-1641.
[11] 顾洁, 秦玥, 包海龙. 基于熵权与系统动力学的配电网规划动态综合评价[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2013, 41(1): 76-83. GU Jie, QIN Yue, BAO Hai-long. Comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the distribution network planning based on entropy weight and system dynamics[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2013, 41(1): 76-83.
[12] 周鹏飞, 陈栋, 王秋良. 建筑绿色供应链实施的仿真分析: 以大连为例[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(1): 173-180. ZHOU Peng-fei, CHEN Dong, WANG Qiu-liang. Simulation and analysis of construction green supply chain implementation: A case of Dalian[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2014, 26(1): 173-180.
[13] 杨建华, 宋扬. 大型装备备件库存系统动力机制研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(7): 1589-1598. YANG Jian-hua, SONG Yang. Dynamic mechanism of spare parts inventory system for large scale equipment[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2014, 26(7): 1589-1598.
[14] 邓逸, 张圣书, 陈蓉. 居民收入增长与GDP增长的互动关系仿真[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(10): 2507-2513. DENG Yi, ZHANG Shengshu, CHEN Rong. Simulation of interaction of resident income growth and economic growth[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2014, 26(10): 2507-2513.
[15] 孙金玉, 张力菠, 汤铭端. 不同规模下华东地区煤炭应急储备轮库仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(2): 248-253. SUN Jin-yu, ZHANG Li-bo, TANG Ming-duan. Study on simulation of coal emergency reserve rotating in east China under different scales[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2014, 26(2): 248-253.
[16] 林闯. 随机Petri网和系统性能评价[M]. 2版. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2005. LIN Chuang. Performance evaluat ion of systems using stochast ic Petri nets[M]. Second Edition. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2005.