基于人工社会的疫情传播风险预测和防控措施评估

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-FZ0460

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (12): 2507-2514.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-FZ0460

• 国家安全仿真 • 上一篇

基于人工社会的疫情传播风险预测和防控措施评估

陈彬¹, 杨妹¹, 艾川¹, 马亮¹, 朱正秋¹, 陈海亮¹, 朱蒙娜¹, 许伟²

1.国防科技大学系统工程学院,湖南长沙 410073;
2.中国人民大学信息学院,北京 100872

收稿日期:2020-03-30 修回日期:2020-06-15 出版日期:2020-12-18 发布日期:2020-12-16
作者简介:陈彬(1981-),男,安徽芜湖,博士,副研究员,研究方向为基于ACP的仿真运行支撑、平行实验方法等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71673292,71673294),国家社会科学基金(17CGL047)

Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society

Chen Bin¹, Yang Mei¹, Ai Chuan¹, Ma Liang¹, Zhu Zhengqiu¹, Chen Hailiang¹, Zhu Mengna¹, Xu Wei²

1. College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;
2. School of Information,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China

Received:2020-03-30 Revised:2020-06-15 Online:2020-12-18 Published:2020-12-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 新型冠状病毒疫情在全国一盘棋的严格防控措施下已经得到了控制,但是如何对其进行常态化的治理值得深入研究。分别基于SEIR模型和人工社会情景建立了新型冠状病毒疫情传播模型和人员接触网络模型;在天河超级计算机上运用多Agent计算实验方法进行大样本计算实验,模拟人工城市中社区、学校和工作场所等典型区域疫情传播,预测和评估复工复学后疫情传播风险。实验结果表明疫情防控要做好打持久战的准备,将应急措施作用到疫情发生相变之前。

关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 传播预测, 防控措施评估, 人工社会, 计算实验

Abstract: The COVID-19 has been controlled under the strict measures,but how to normalize it deserves in-depth study.The COVID-19 transmission model and the human contact network are established separately based on SEIR model and the artificial social scenario.With the support of the multi-agent computational experiment method,a large sample calculation experiment was performed on the Tianhe supercomputer to simulate the epidemic transmission in typical areas such as communities,schools,and workplaces in artificial cities,and to predict and evaluate the risk of epidemic spread after resumption of work and school.The results show that epidemic prevention and control must be prepared for a protracted battle,the emergency measures should be activated before the outbreak.

Key words: COVID-19, transmission prediction, evaluation of prevention and control measures, artificial society, computational experiment

中图分类号:

TP391.9

陈彬, 杨妹, 艾川, 马亮, 朱正秋, 陈海亮, 朱蒙娜, 许伟. 基于人工社会的疫情传播风险预测和防控措施评估[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(12): 2507-2514.

Chen Bin, Yang Mei, Ai Chuan, Ma Liang, Zhu Zhengqiu, Chen Hailiang, Zhu Mengna, Xu Wei. Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(12): 2507-2514.

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基于人工社会的疫情传播风险预测和防控措施评估

Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society

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