关键词: 校园疫情防控, 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 建模仿真, 宏观模型, 微观模型, 多尺度建模, 基于智能体, SEIR模型

Abstract:

High density of population leads to high possibility of cross-infection. It is necessary to focus on campus epidemic prevention and control. Basing on existing studies in macroscopic or microscopic view, this paper proposed a multi-scale means to analyze a short-term evolution of Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on campus and estimated the efficiency of prevention strategies. Macroscopic model was based on the susceptible-exposed-infections-recovered(SEIR) model, which exported the time curve of the number of asymptomatic patients and symptomatic patients. Microscopic model combined discrete event simulation modeling and agent-based modeling to simulate the behavior of campus students and the state evolution caused by infectious disease in real-world, and simulated propagation process of COVID-19 on campus, which outputted the population in infection. Through experimental verification of case study, proving the efficiency of peak stagger to school and taking routine nuclear acid testing then isolating patients. Distinguish key parameters by taking sensitivity analysis. The simulation results can provide a reference for the school management to optimize epidemic prevention measures.

Key words: campus epidemic prevention, corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), modeling & simulation, macroscopic model, microscopic model, multi-scale modeling, agent based, susceptible-exposed-infections-recovered(SEIR) model