城市疫情传播和复工强度建模及相关性分析

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.20-0305

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以多源大数据为基础构建模型,分析全国34个典型城市因疫情导致的人口迁徙变化和人力缺口,并通过迁徙基数推算其他各城市的复工强度。仿真结果证明SEIR仓室模型能够较好地模拟此次疫情发展趋势,利用其估计各城市内部新型冠状病毒感染肺炎的基本再生数,结合人力缺口对复工强度进行回顾性的矩阵分析,以总结我国此次抗疫经验。相关性分析阶段对K-means无监督聚类后的城市集群进行回归分析,结果表明对于大部分城市而言,复工强度的大小与其人力缺口、基本再生数以及人均GDP水平有明显的相关关系。

关键词: 新冠肺炎, 疫情传播, 复工强度, 基本再生数, 建模, 相关性分析

Abstract: On the basis of multi-source big data, the model for analyzing the population migration changes and manpower gaps caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in 34 typical cities across the country is constructed , and the work resumption intensity of other cities is predicited by using the migration base constructed. The SEIR model is used to estimate the basic reproduction number in each city since the simulate results show that it can emulate the transmission trend of this epidemic accurately, and the retrospective matrix analysis of the work resumption intensity is combined with the manpower gap to summarize the anti-epidemic experience of China. In the stage of relevance analysis, regression analysis is performed on the city clusters under K-means unsupervised clustering. The results show that for most cities, the work resumption intensity significantly correlated with the manpower gap, basic reproduction number, and GDP per capita.

Key words: COVID-19, epidemic transmission, work resumption intensity, basic reproduction number, modeling, relevance analysis

中图分类号:

TP391.9

甘蜜, 田昀翊, 张文畅, 赵夕涵. 城市疫情传播和复工强度建模及相关性分析[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(11): 2258-2271.

Gan Mi, Tian Yunyi, Zhang Wenchang, Zhao Xihan. Modeling and Relevance Analysis of Urban Epidemic Transmission and Work Resumption Intensity[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(11): 2258-2271.

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