基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0153

系统仿真学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 353-361.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.18-0153

基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究

王剑^1,2, 司徒陈麒^1,2, 袁胜强^1,2

1. 华中科技大学人工智能与自动化学院,湖北武汉 430074;
2. 图像信息处理与智能控制教育部重点实验室,湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2018-03-20 修回日期:2018-07-17 出版日期:2020-03-18 发布日期:2020-03-25
作者简介:王剑(1976-),男,湖北,博士,副教授,研究方向为应急服务系统建模、优化与仿真,多Agent系统等;司徒陈麒(1994-),男,浙江,硕士生,研究方向为应急风险决策等。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71671071,71271094)

Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory

Wang Jian^1,2, Situ Chenqi^1,2, Yuan Shengqiang^1,2

1. School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
2. Key Laboratory for Image Information Processing and Intelligent controlling of Ministry of Education, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2018-03-20 Revised:2018-07-17 Online:2020-03-18 Published:2020-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对多部门参与的突发事件应急风险决策的建模与仿真问题,提出了一种基于多主体和前景理论的仿真模型及仿真框架。通过引入Agent思想,描述了应急风险决策的多Agent体系结构模型,并对决策主体进行建模;通过引入前景理论思想,着重考虑了随着突发事件的动态演化决策者心理状态变化对决策结果产生的影响。在此基础上,设计并实现了多Agent应急风险决策仿真框架。以石油化工厂火灾应急风险决策为例,验证了仿真模型及框架的有效性和可行性。

关键词: 多主体, BDI(Belief-Desire-Intention), 前景理论, 应急风险决策, 建模与仿真

Abstract: Focusing on the modeling and the simulation of emergency response risk decision that multi-sections involve in, a simulation model and simulation framework based on multi-agent and prospect theory are proposed. By introducing agent theory, the multi-agent architecture model of emergency risk decision is described and the decision agent are modelled. By introducing prospect theory, following the dynamic evolution of emergencies, the impact of the psychological changes of the decision-makers have on the decision results is studied. The multi-agent emergency risk decision simulation framework is designed and implemented. Taking the risk decision of a fire emergency in the petrochemical plants as an example, the availability and the feasibility of the model and the framework are verified.

Key words: multi-agent, BDI(Belief-Desire-Intention), prospect theory, emergency risk decision, modeling and simulation

中图分类号:

TP391.9

王剑, 司徒陈麒, 袁胜强. 基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(3): 353-361.

Wang Jian, Situ Chenqi, Yuan Shengqiang. Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2020, 32(3): 353-361.

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基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究

Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory

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