基于PERT和ABMS的装备体系保障效能评估方法研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0457

系统仿真学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 1837-1846.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.23-0457

基于PERT和ABMS的装备体系保障效能评估方法研究

马善智¹(), 王宏亮¹, 何华²(), 伦伟成³

^1.航空工业成都飞机设计研究所, 四川成都 610091
^2.国防科技大学系统工程学院, 湖南长沙 410073
^3.国防科技大学军政基础教育学院, 湖南长沙 410072

收稿日期:2023-04-18 修回日期:2023-07-06 出版日期:2023-09-25 发布日期:2023-09-19
通讯作者: 何华 E-mail:mashanzhi@126.com;hehua3566@nudt.edu.cn
第一作者简介:马善智（1985-），男，壮族，工程师，硕士，研究方向为飞机设计。E-mail：mashanzhi@126.com

Research on Support Effectiveness Evaluation Method of Equipment Systems Based on PERT and ABMS

Ma Shanzhi¹(), Wang Hongliang¹, He Hua²(), Lun Weicheng³

^1.AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Design & Research Institute, Chengdu 610091, China
^2.College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense and Technology, Changsha 410073, China
^3.Basic Education College, National University of Defense and Technology, Changsha 410072, China

Received:2023-04-18 Revised:2023-07-06 Online:2023-09-25 Published:2023-09-19
Contact: He Hua E-mail:mashanzhi@126.com;hehua3566@nudt.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

装备体系的保障直接影响了装备体系的作战效果，而装备体系保障效能评估具有范围大、层次多、要素全、流程长等特点。针对飞机装备的体系化作战需求，分析了飞机装备体系保障效能评估的难点。面向飞机装备保障任务的时序性及其建模需求，设计了基于PERT的机场保障建模方法，建立了面向装备体系保障活动的PERT进程模型。提出了基于ABMS的可组合装备体系作战模型框架，定义了面向体系效能分析的保障实体类型、装备对象、交互关系和交互对象的建模概念。鉴于定性分析方法难以胜任装备体系保障的效能评估，采用基于决策树的定量分析方法分析了保障要素对体系作战效能的影响，为面向体系作战的装备保障正向设计提供了一种定量分析手段。最后，通过典型应用案例的仿真实验，验证了前述方法和模型的有效性。

关键词: 体系作战, 保障效能, 基于Agent的建模与仿真(ABMS), 计划评估和审查技术(PERT), 定量分析

Abstract:

The support of an equipment system directly affects its combat effectiveness, and the support effectiveness evaluation of equipment systems has the characteristics of large scope, multiple levels, complete elements, and long process. According to the systematic combat requirements of aircraft equipment, the difficulties in evaluating the support effectiveness of aircraft equipment systems are analyzed. The PERT-based modeling method of airfield support is proposed, and the PERT-based process model of equipment system support activity is established according to the modeling requirements and sequential characteristics of aircraft equipment support tasks. The operational model framework of combinable equipment systems based on ABMS is proposed. The modeling concepts for support entity types, equipment objects, interaction relationships, and interaction objects for system effectiveness analysis are defined. Since qualitative analyses are not able to evaluate the effectiveness of equipment system support, the influence of support elements on system combat effectiveness is analyzed by the decision-tree-based quantitative analysis method, which provides a quantitative analysis means for the forward design of system-oriented combat equipment support. In the end, the effectiveness of the proposed method and model is verified by typical application cases.

Key words: system combat, support effectiveness, agent-based modelling and simulation(ABMS), program evaluation and review technique(PERT), quantitative analysis

中图分类号:

TP391.9

马善智,王宏亮,何华等 . 基于PERT和ABMS的装备体系保障效能评估方法研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2023, 35(9): 1837-1846.

Ma Shanzhi,Wang Hongliang,He Hua,et al . Research on Support Effectiveness Evaluation Method of Equipment Systems Based on PERT and ABMS[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(9): 1837-1846.

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基于PERT和ABMS的装备体系保障效能评估方法研究

Research on Support Effectiveness Evaluation Method of Equipment Systems Based on PERT and ABMS

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