Abstract: The use of bayesian network model for threat assessment is a relatively new quantitative analysis method. The hierarchical bayesian network model was applied to aircraft carrier formation to assess submarine formation threat for the first time, which also assessed the threat level of the submarine formation, to achieve the purpose of assisting decision-making for aircraft carrier formation commanders in anti-submarine warfare. The hierarchical bayesian network model was described. The causes and the mechanism of the aircraft carrier formation from the underwater target threat, integrated force data, institutional experts and information were analyzed. A reliable aircraft carrier formation hierarchical bayesian network was established. The effectiveness of the hierarchical bayesian network on the threat assessment of aircraft carrier formation was verified by the experimental simulation.

Key words: hierarchical bayesian network, threat assessment, aircraft carrier formation, target intent