人工社会大规模人工人口生成方法综述

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0493

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 大规模人工人口生成是以个体为核心的高分辨率人工社会演化的数据基础。通过对比分析典型人工人口构成要素、构建方法、演化规则等内容,对大规模人工人口构建的发展历程、人口数据库生成、时空关系建立、行为演化规则以及社会关系重建的理论与实现方法进行了分析,讨论了数据驱动、开放式人工人口架构的应用前景和未来发展方向。

关键词: 人工人口, 人口数据库, 行为演化规则, 社会关系重建, 数据驱动

Abstract: The generation of large-scale artificial population is the fundamental data of high-resolution agent-based artificial society. By the comparison of typical artificial population models, the basic elements, generating methods, and evolving rules, the development of artificial society, generation of population database, the establishment of spatial-temporal relationship, evolving rules of behavior, and reconstruction of social relationship are analyzed. Furthermore, data-driven method and open interface framework of artificial population are discussed, and the future direction and development are listed.

Key words: artificial population, population database, evolving rules of behavior, reconstruction of social relations, data driven

中图分类号:

TP391.9

葛渊峥, 宋智超, 孟荣清. 人工社会大规模人工人口生成方法综述[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2019, 31(10): 1951-1959.

Ge Yuanzheng, Song Zhichao, Meng Rongqing. The Method Summary of Generating Large-scale Artificial Population in an Artificial Society[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(10): 1951-1959.

参考文献

[1] 王飞跃, 邱晓刚, 曾大军, 等. 基于平行系统的非常规突发事件计算实验平台研究[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2010, 7(4): 1-10.
Wang Feiyue, Qiu Xiaogang, Zeng Dajun, et al.A computational experimental platform for emergency response based on parallel system[J]. Complex System and Complexity Science, 2010, 7(4): 1-10.
[2] Helbing D, Balietti S.From social simulation to integrative system design[J]. The European Physical Journal Special Topics (S1951-6355), 2011, 195(1): 69-100.
[3] Chen B, Cheng H H, Palen J.Integrating mobile agent technology with multi-agent systems for distributed traffic detection and management systems[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies (S0968-090X), 2009, 17(1): 1-10.
[4] Cioffi-Revilla C.Computational social science[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics (S1939-0068), 2010, 2(3): 259-271.
[5] Cheung C M K, Chiu P, Lee M K O. Online social networks: why do students use facebook[J]? Computers in Human Behavior (S0747-5632), 2011, 27(4): 1337-1343.
[6] Szell M, Lambiotte R, Thurner S.Multirelational organization of large-scale social networks in an online world[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (S0027-8424), 2010, 107(31): 13636-13641.
[7] Agarwal N, Xu X.Social computational systems[J]. Journal of Computational Science (S1877-7503), 2011, 2(3): 189-192.
[8] Epstein J M, Axtell R Project.Growing artificial societies: social science from the bottom up[M]. Boston: Mit Press, 1996.
[9] 王飞跃. 关于复杂系统的建模、分析、控制和管理[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2006, 3(2): 26-34.
Wang Feiyue.On the modeling, analysis, control and management of complex systems[J]. Complex System and Complexity Science, 2006, 3(2): 26-34.
[10] Ge Y, Liu L, Qiu X, et al.A framework of multilayer social networks for communication behavior with agent-based modeling[J]. Simulation (S0037-5497), 2013, 89(7): 810-828.
[11] 樊宗臣, 邱晓刚, 李博, 等. 面向网络公共安全事件的人工社会模型体系结构[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(10): 2264-2272.
Fan Zongchen, Qiu Xiaogang, Li Bo, et al.Systemic modeling framework of artificial society for public safety event related to internet[J]. Journal of System Simulation (S1004-731X), 2014, 26(10) : 2264-2272.
[12] 陈松航, 汤淑明, 朱凤华, 等. 人工交通系统计算实验的分布式框架研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2013, 25(4): 605-611.
Chen Songhang, Tang Shuming, Zhu Fenghua, et al.Research on distributed framework for computational experiments based on artificial transportation systems[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2013, 25(4): 605-611.
[13] 周敏, 董海荣, 徐惠春, 等. 平行应急疏散系统: 基本概念、体系框架及其应用[J]. 自动化学报, 2019, 45(6): 1074-1086.
Zhou Min, Dong Hairong, Xu Huichun, et al.Parallel emergency evaluation systems: basic concept, framework and applications[J]. Acta Automatica China, 2019, 45(6): 1074-1086.
[14] Wang Q L, Dong H R, Ning B, et al.Two time-scale hybrid traffic models for pedestrian crowds[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems (S1524-9050), 2018, 17(11): 3449-3460.
[15] 王飞跃, 史帝夫·兰森. 从人工生命到人工社会复杂社会系统研究的现状和展望[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2004, 1(1): 33-41.
Wang Feiyue, Steve L.From artificial societies-new method for studies of complex social systems[J]. Complex System and Complexity Science, 2004, 1(1): 33-41.
[16] Epstein J M.Modelling to contain pandemics[J]. Nature (S0028-0836), 2009, 460(7256): 687.
[17] Parker J, Epstein J M.A distributed platform for global-scale agent-based models of disease transmission[J]. ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (S1049-3301) , 2011, 22(1): 1-25.
[18] Ge Y, Meng R, Cao Z, et al.Virtual City: An Individual-Based Digital Environment for Human Mobility and Interactive Behavior[J]. Simulation (S0037-5497), 2014, 90(8): 917-935.
[19] Goel S, Anderson A, Hofman J, et al.The structural virality of online diffusion[J]. Management Science (S0025-1909), 2015, 62(1): 180-196.
[20] Taxidou I, Fischer P M.Online analysis of information diffusion in twitter[C]. Proceedings of the 23^rd International Conference on World Wide Web. Seoul Korea: Association for Computing Machinery, 2014: 1313-1318.
[21] 曹志冬, 曾大军, 王全意, 等. 北京市甲型H1N1早期流行的特征与时空演变模式[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(3): 361-368.
Cao Zhidong, Zeng Dajun, Wang Quanyi, et al.Epidemiological features and spatio-temporal evolution in the early phase of the Beijing H1N1 epidemic[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (S0357-5444), 2010, 65(3): 361-368.
[22] 方滨兴, 许进, 李建华. 在线社交网络分析[M]. 北京: 电子工业出版社, 2014.
Fang Binxing, Xu Jin, Li Jianhua.Online social network analysis[M]. Beijing: Publishing House of Electronic Industry, 2014.
[23] Smith L, Beckman R, Anson D, et al.TRANSIMS: Transportation ANalysis and SIMulation System[R]. 1995.
[24] Stroud P, Valle S D, Sydoriak S, et al.Spatial dynamics of pandemic influenza in a massive artificial society[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (S1460-7425), 2007, 10(4): 9.
[25] Carley K M, Fridsma D B, Casman E, et al.BioWar: scalable agent-based model of bioattacks[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans (S1083-4427), 2006, 36(2): 252-265.
[26] Louie M A, Carley K M.Balancing the criticisms: validating multi-agent models of social systems[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory (S1569-190X), 2008, 16(2): 242-256.
[27] Ge Y, Song Z, Qiu X, et al.Modular and hierarchical structure of social contact networks[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (S0378-4371), 2013, 392(19): 4619-4628.
[28] Lerman K, Ghosh R.Information Contagion: an Empirical Study of the Spread of News on Digg and Twitter Social Networks[J]. Computer Science (S1508-2806), 2010, 52: 166-176.
[29] Ferguson N M, Cummings D A T, Fraser C, et al. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic[J]. Nature (S0028-0836), 2006, 442(7101): 448-452.
[30] Hethcote H.The mathematics of infectious diseases[J]. SIAM Review (S0036-1445), 2000, 42(4): 599-653.
[31] Ge Y, Chen B, Liu L, et al.A synthetic computational environment: to control the spread of respiratory infections in a virtual university[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (S0378-4371), 2018, 492: 93-104.
[32] Chen A, Zhang D.Mobile social networking an innovative approach[M]. New York: Springer New York, 2014.
[33] Bates S, Leonenko V, Rineer J, et al.Using synthetic population to understand geospatial patterns in opioid related overdose and predicted opioid misuse[J]. Computer and Mathematical Organization Theory (S1381-298X), 2019, 25(1): 36-47.
[34] Ghorbani A, Dijkema G P J, Bots P, et al. Model-driven agent-based simulation: Procedural semantics of a MAIA model[J]. Simulation Modeling Practice and Theory (S1569-190X), 2014, 49: 27-44.
[35] Ghorbani A, Bots P, Dignum V, et al.MAIA: A Framework for Developing Agent Based Social Simulations[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (S1460-7425), 2013, 16(2):9.
[36] Hou B, Yao Y, Wang B, et al.Modeling and simulation of large-scale social networks using parallel discrete event simulation[J]. Simulation (S0037-5497), 2013, 89(10): 1173-1183.
[37] Gelenbe E, Wu F J.Future Research on Cyber-Physical Emergency Management Systems[J]. Future Internet (S1999-5903), 2013, 5(3): 336-354.
[38] Pruyt E, Auping W L, Kwakkel J H.Ebola in West Africa: Model-Based Exploration of Social Psychological Effects and Interventions[J]. Systems Research and Behavioral Science (S1099-1743), 2015, 32(1): 2-14.
[39] Westermann D, Happe J, Farahbod R.An Experiment Specification Language for Goal-driven, Automated Performance Evaluations[C]. SAC 2013. New York, NY, USA: Association for Computing Machinery, 2013: 1043-1048.
[40] Degli Atti M L C, Merler S, Rizzo C, et al. Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios[J]. PLoS ONE (S1932-6203), 2008, 3(3): 1790.
[41] Rakowski F, Gruziel M, Krych M, et al.Large scale daily contacts and mobility model-an individual-based countrywide simulation study for Poland[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies & Social Simulation (S1460-7425), 2010, 13(1): 13.
[42] Rakowski F, Gruziel M, Bieniasz-Krzywiec Ł, et al.Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland—a large scale, individual based model study[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (S0878-4371), 2010, 389(16): 3149-3165.
[43] Song Z, Meng R, Duan H, et al.Statistical analysis and modeling of residential buildings for artificial Beijing reconstruction[J]. International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing (S1793-9623), 2016, 7(2): 1650003.
[44] Ridenhour B J, Braun A, Teyrasse T, et al.Controlling the spread of disease in schools[J]. PLoS ONE (S1932-6203), 2011, 6(12): 29640.
[45] Vercouter L, Muller G.L.I.A.R.: Achieving Social Control in Open and Decentralized Multiagent System[J]. Applied Artificial Intelligence (S0883-9514), 2010, 24(8): 723-768.
[46] 宁滨, 王飞跃, 董海荣, 等. 基于ACP方法的城市轨道交通平行系统体系研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2010, 10(6): 22-28.
Ning Bin, Wang Feiyue, Dong Hairong, et al.Parallel system for urban rail transportation based on ACP approach[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2010, 10(6): 22-28.
[47] 唐明圣, 毛新军, 周会平. 基于Agent的人工社会建模语言研究[J]. 计算机研究与发展, 2015, 52(5): 1036-1049.
Tang Mingsheng, Mao Xinjun, Zhou Huiping.Agent-based artificial society modeling language[J]. Journal of Computer Research and Development, 2015, 52(5): 1036-1049.
[48] 孟荣清, 邱晓刚, 张烙兵, 等. 面向平行应急管理的计算实验框架[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2015, 35(10): 2459-2466.
Meng Rongqing, Qiu Xiaogang, Zhang Laobing, et al.Parallel emergency management oriented computation experimental frame[J]. System Engineering -Theory and Practice, 2015, 35(10): 2459-2466.
[49] Watts D J, Strogatz S H.Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks[J]. Nature (S0028-0836), 1998, 393(6684): 440-442.
[50] Barabási A, Albert R.Emergence of scaling in random networks[J]. Science (S0036-8075), 1999, 286(5439): 509-512.
[51] Newman M.The structure and function of complex networks[J]. SIAM Review (S0036-1445), 2003, 45(2): 167-256.
[52] Tsai Y S, Huang C Y, Wen T H, et al.Integrating epidemic dynamics with daily commuting networks: building a multilayer framework to assess influenza A (H1N1) intervention policies[J]. Simulation (S0037-5497), 2011, 87(5): 385-405.
[53] Song Z, Ge Y, Luo L, et al.An effective immunization strategy for airborne epidemics in modular and hierarchical social contact network[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (S0878-4371), 2015, 439: 142-149.
[54] Ai C, Chen B, He L, et al.The national geographic characteristics of online public opinion propagation in China based on WeChat network[J]. Geoinformatica (S1384-6175), 2018, 22(2): 311-334.
[55] Todorovski L, Džeroski S.Integrating knowledge-driven and data-driven approaches to modeling[J]. Ecological Modelling (S0304-3800), 2006, 194(1): 3-13.
[56] Liu L, Qu B, Chen B, et al.Modeling of information diffusion on social networks with applications to WeChat[J]. Physica: A Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications (S0378-4371), 2017, 496: 318-329.