乳制品冷链物流风险评估的DBN方法研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286

系统仿真学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 936-945.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.17-0286

乳制品冷链物流风险评估的DBN方法研究

陈伟炯^1,2,3, 范雯^1,2, 朱小林^1,2, 谢启苗^2,3, 尹小贝^2,3

1.上海海事大学物流研究中心,上海 201306;
2.上海海事大学物流供应链风险控制研究中心,上海 201306;
3.上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306

收稿日期:2017-06-14 修回日期:2017-08-16 出版日期:2019-05-08 发布日期:2019-11-20
作者简介:陈伟炯(1957-),男,江苏常州,博士,教授,博导,研究方向为物流安全与供应链风险控制;范雯(1993-),女,山东淄博,硕士,研究方向为物流安全与供应链风险控制。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71503166)

DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics

Chen Weijiong^1,2,3, Fan Wen^1,2, Zhu Xiaolin^1,2, Xie Qimiao^2,3, Yin Xiaobei^2,3

1. Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
2. Logistics and Supply Chain Risk Control Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;
3. College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China

Received:2017-06-14 Revised:2017-08-16 Online:2019-05-08 Published:2019-11-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 乳制品冷链物流是一个单向动态过程。依据贝叶斯理论,考虑风险之间的依次传递性,利用GeNIe软件建立DBN风险评估模型,对乳制品冷链物流风险概率进行评估,并对评估结果进行灵敏度分析。结果表明,运输风险的发生概率最高,加工风险的灵敏度值最高,因此加工环节与运输环节是乳制品冷链物流的关键环节。利用马库斯分数,对DBN的评估结果与静态贝叶斯网络的评估结果进行对比,发现DBN的评估结果明显精确,该模型为冷链行业进行风险评估提供了一种新的评估范式。

关键词: 乳制品品质, 冷链物流风险, 动态贝叶斯网络, 灵敏度分析

Abstract: Dairy cold chain logistics is a one-way dynamic process. According to the Bayesian theory, this paper considered the transitivity between risks and used the GeNIe software to establish the DBN risk assessment model. The cold chain logistics risk probability of dairy products was evaluated and the sensitivity analysis was carried out. The results revealed that the probability of transportation risk is the highest, and the sensitivity of processing risk is the highest. The processing and the transportation are the key links of the dairy product cold chain logistics. Comparing the results of DBN and the results of static Bayesian network by Marcus score, it is found that the results of DBN are efficient precision. This model provides a new evaluation paradigm for risk assessment of cold chain industry.

Key words: dairy quality, cold chain logistics risk, dynamic Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis

中图分类号:

TP391.9

陈伟炯, 范雯, 朱小林, 谢启苗, 尹小贝. 乳制品冷链物流风险评估的DBN方法研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2019, 31(5): 936-945.

Chen Weijiong, Fan Wen, Zhu Xiaolin, Xie Qimiao, Yin Xiaobei. DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2019, 31(5): 936-945.

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乳制品冷链物流风险评估的DBN方法研究

DBN Method for Risk Assessment of Dairy Products Cold Chain Logistics

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