考虑恐怖袭击模式的行人应急疏散模拟

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.22-0368

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究突发恐怖袭击情境下的人员疏散，建立了一种考虑恐怖袭击模式的行人疏散模型。模型中恐怖分子可采取袭击最近行人和袭击人群两种策略；通过仿真分析不同袭击模式和疏散场景下的疏散时间、人员伤亡及位置分布。结果表明：行人在疏散中需要保持合适的逃生意向。恐怖分子初始位置距离出口越近，所造成的伤亡越大且疏散时间越长。出口位置对疏散的影响与恐怖袭击策略及出口宽度密切相关。当恐怖分子袭击人群时，障碍物横向排布导致疏散时间增加，而人员伤亡下降。当恐怖分子袭击最近行人时，障碍物的存在会造成疏散延误。当恐怖分子数量较少时，袭击人群策略造成的伤亡较大，而当其数量较多时，袭击最近行人的策略危害更大。

关键词: 应急疏散, 元胞自动机, 恐怖袭击, 行人安全, 人员伤亡

Abstract:

To investigate pedestrian evacuation under the sudden terrorist attack, an evacuation model is established for pedestrians taking into account the terrorist attack mode. The terrorist can take two strategies including attacking the nearest pedestrian and attacking the crowd in the model. The evacuation time, casualties and location distribution in various scenarios under different attack modes are analyzed. The results show that pedestrians need to maintain a proper escape intention when avoiding the terrorist. The closer the initial position of the terrorists to the exit, the greater the number of casualties and the longer the evacuation time. The effect of exit location on evacuation is closely related to the attack mode and the width of the exit. In addition, if the terrorist attacks the crowd, the horizontal arrangement of obstacles increases the evacuation time while reducing the total number of casualties. If the terrorist attacks the nearest individual, the existence of obstacles delays the evacuation process. Furthermore, the strategy of attacking the crowd causes more casualties when the number of terrorists is smaller, while the strategy of attacking the nearest individual is more harmful when the number of terrorists is large.

Key words: emergency evacuation, cellular automaton, terrorist attack, pedestrian safety, casualties

中图分类号:

X956

曹淑超, 钱嘉龙. 考虑恐怖袭击模式的行人应急疏散模拟[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2023, 35(7): 1539-1548.

Shuchao Cao, Jialong Qian. Simulation of Pedestrian Emergency Evacuation Considering Terrorist Attack Mode[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2023, 35(7): 1539-1548.

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