基于风险感知的室内疏散情绪传染与干预策略研究

doi:10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0297

系统仿真学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 2691-2703.doi: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.21-0297

• 国民经济仿真 • 上一篇

基于风险感知的室内疏散情绪传染与干预策略研究

曾杨¹(), 黎金玲²^,³(), 郭海湘¹^,⁴, 陈卫明⁵

^1.中国地质大学(武汉) 经济管理学院，湖北武汉 430074
^2.武汉工程科技学院经济与管理学院，湖北武汉 430200
^3.湖北第二师范学院管理学院，湖北武汉 430205
^4.西安财经大学管理学院，陕西西安 710100
^5.中国地质大学(武汉) 工程学院，湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2021-04-06 修回日期:2021-06-07 出版日期:2022-12-31 发布日期:2022-12-21
通讯作者: 黎金玲 E-mail:1477478519@qq.com;35979923@qq.com
作者简介:曾杨(1996-)，女，硕士生，研究方向为应急管理系统仿真与决策。E-mail：1477478519@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(72074198);国家社会科学基金(21AZD074);中宣部宣传思想文化青年英才基金(2020084007);湖北省教育厅科学研究计划(B2019311)

Research on Emotional Contagion and Intervention Strategy of Indoor Evacuation Based on Risk Perception

Yang Zeng¹(), Jinling Li²^,³(), Haixiang Guo¹^,⁴, Weiming Chen⁵

^1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
^2.School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University of Engineering Science, Wuhan 430200, China
^3.School of Management, Hubei University of Education, Wuhan 430205, China
^4.School of Management, Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an 710100, China
^5.Faculty of engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2021-04-06 Revised:2021-06-07 Online:2022-12-31 Published:2022-12-21
Contact: Jinling Li E-mail:1477478519@qq.com;35979923@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对突发事件下多出口多障碍物室内紧急疏散过程中恐慌情绪传染问题，综合考虑人格特性，年龄、性别上的风险感知差异以及意识调节作用构建情绪传染模型，利用AnyLogic进行模拟仿真，将个体情绪与疏散速度结合，实现情绪状态与速度的实时更新。验证疏散过程人员干预可以有效缓解恐慌情绪的蔓延，以期为紧急疏散过程中恐慌情绪传染提供理论依据。结果表明：自身判断力即意识调节作用在一定程度上可以有效降低疏散时间；初始恐慌人数持续增加最终会导致群体间恐慌情绪传染加快以及疏散时间增加；风险感知程度越低，行人更容易处于冷静状态；合理安排管理员位置可以有效抑制恐慌情绪蔓延，提高整体疏散效率。

关键词: 风险感知, 室内疏散, 情绪传染, 干预

Abstract:

Aiming at the panic emotion contagion in the indoor emergency evacuation with multi-exit and multi-obstacle, an emotional contagion model is constructed on personality traits, risk perception differences of age and gender, and consciousness regulation. The simulation is carried out by using AnyLogic, which combines individual emotions with evacuation speed to realize the real-time updating of emotional state and speed. That personnel intervention in the process of evacuation can effectively alleviate the spread of panic emotion, is verified and can provide the theoretical basis for panic contagion in the process of emergency evacuation. The results show that the degree of self-judgment, i.e. consciousness regulation can effectively reduce the evacuation time to a certain extent. The continuous increase of the number of pedestrians initially in panic accelerate the spread of panic among groups and increased the evacuation time. Pedestrians with lower risk perception are more likely to stay calm. Reasonable position arrangement of administrators could effectively restrain the spread of panic and improve the overall evacuation efficiency.

Key words: risk perception, indoor evacuation, emotional contagion, intervention

中图分类号:

TP391

曾杨, 黎金玲, 郭海湘, 陈卫明. 基于风险感知的室内疏散情绪传染与干预策略研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2022, 34(12): 2691-2703.

Yang Zeng, Jinling Li, Haixiang Guo, Weiming Chen. Research on Emotional Contagion and Intervention Strategy of Indoor Evacuation Based on Risk Perception[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2022, 34(12): 2691-2703.

图/表 18

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

性别风险感知因子划分

性别	$μ g$ 值	$σ g$ 值
男	-0.5	0.3
女	0.5	0.3

表3

表4

年龄风险感知因子划分

年龄阶段	$μ a$ 值	$σ a$ 值
青年	0.7	0.2
中年	0	0.3
老年	-0.7	0.2

表4

表5

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

图13

参考文献 27

1	隋杰, 万佳慧, 于华. 基于社会力的应急疏散仿真模型应用研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2014, 26(6): 1197-1201.
	Sui Jie, Wan Jiahui, Yu Hua. Research on Simulation of Emergency Evacuation Based on Social Force Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2014, 26(6): 1197-1201.
2	刘全平, 梁加红, 李猛, 等. 基于多智能体和元胞自动机人群疏散行为研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2014, 31(1): 328-332.
	Liu Quanping, Liang Jiahong, Li Meng, et al. Study on Crowd Evacuation Behaviors Based on Multi-Agent and Cellular Automata Technology[J]. Computer Simulation, 2014, 31(1): 328-332.
3	Hill A L, Rand D G, Nowak M A, et al. Emotions as Infectious Diseases in a Large Social Network: the SISa Model[J]. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences(S1471-2954), 2010, 277(1701): 3827-3835.
4	Fu Libi, Song Weiguo, Wei Lü, et al. Simulation of Emotional Contagion Using Modified SIR Model: A Cellular Automaton Approach[J]. Physica A-Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications(S0378-4371), 2014, 405: 380-391.
5	何高奇, 边晓晖, 孙菲, 等. 基于传染病机制的突发事件下群体情绪感染模型[J]. 华东理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 44(6): 909-917.
	He Gaoqi, Bian Xiaohui, Sun Fei, et al. Crowd Emotional Contagion Model Based on the Epidemic Mechanism under Emergencies[J]. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2018, 44(6): 909-917.
6	Liu Zhifeng, Zhang Tingting, Lan Qiujun. An Extended SISa Model for Sentiment Contagion[J]. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society(S1026-0226), 2014(4): 1-7.
7	陈卫明, 周豪洁, 张奕莹. 基于改进传染病模型的群体情绪感染机制研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(10): 149-155.
	Chen Weiming, Zhou Haojie, Zhang Yiying. Study on Mechanism of Emotional Contagion in Group Based on Improved Epidemic Model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(10): 149-155.
8	杨青, 杨帆. 基于元胞自动机的突发传染病事件演化模型[J]. 系统工程学报, 2012, 27(6): 727-738.
	Yang Qing, Yang Fan. Emergency Epidemics Spread Model Using Cellular Automata[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2012, 27(6): 727-738.
9	王梦思, 张桂娟, 刘弘. 面向人群疏散仿真的异构情绪感染模型[J]. 计算机科学, 2019, 46(3): 287-297.
	Wang Mengsi, Zhang Guijuan, Liu Hong. Heterogeneous Emotional Contagion Model for Crowd Evacuation Simulation[J]. Computer Science, 2019, 46(3): 287-297.
10	Yan Mao, Fan Zixuan, Zhao Jiawei, et al. An Emotional Contagion Based Simulation for Emergency Evacuation Peer Behavior Decision[J]. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory(S1569-190X), 2019, 96: 1-16.
11	Bono J E, Charisma Ilies R., Positive Emotions and Mood Contagion[J]. Leadership Quarterly(S1048-9843), 2006(17): 317-334.
12	王志英, 杨淼, 王念新, 等. 信息安全突发事件情感领袖群际效应研究[J]. 管理科学, 2019, 32(1): 14-27.
	Wang Zhiying, Yang Miao, Wang Nianxin, et al. Research on the Intergroup Effect of Emotional Leaders in Information Security Emergencies[J]. Journal of Management Science, 2019, 32(1): 14-27.
13	王丽新, 唐好选. 基于情绪传染模型的群体仿真技术研究[J]. 智能计算机与应用, 2012, 2(4): 81-85.
	Wang Lixin, Tang Haoxuan. Research on Crowd Simulation Based on Emotional Contagion Model[J]. Information Computer and Applications, 2012, 2(4): 81-85.
14	于力鹏, 刘箴, 刘婷婷, 等. 一种基于速度采样的恐慌人群情绪感染模型[J]. 计算机应用研究, 2015, 32(10): 3171-3174.
	Yu Lipeng, Liu Zhen, Liu Tingting, et al. Sampling Speed Based Emotion Contagion Mmodel for Panic Crowd[J]. Application Research of Computers, 2015, 32(10): 3171-3174.
15	谢科范, 宋钰, 梁本部. 人群疏散中的恐慌传播与干预策略研究[J]. 管理学报, 2019, 16(2): 273-279.
	Xie Kefan, Song Yu, Liang Benbu. Panic Contagion and Intervention Strategy in Crowd Evacuation: from the Perspective of Complexity Science Management[J]. Chinese Journal of Management, 2019, 16(2): 273-279.
16	吴新杰, 王维莉, 胡志华. 突发事件下人群恐慌情绪感染模型与干预方法[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2020, 56(12): 265-272.
	Wu Xinjie, Wang Weili, Hu Zhihua. Study on Emotion Contagion Model and Intervention Strategies of Panic in Subway Stations under Emergency[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2020, 56(12): 265-272.
17	刘效广, 杨乃定, 张云翌. 突发事件下决策者线索搜寻的证实性偏差[J]. 管理工程学报, 2016, 30(2): 216-222.
	Liu Xiaoguang, Yang Naiding, Zhang Yunyi. Confirmation Bias of Decision Makers' Cues Searching in Emergency[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering Management, 2016, 30(2): 216-222.
18	王彤. 基于新型情绪传染模型的群体仿真系统的设计与实现[D]. 天津: 天津大学, 2016.
	Wang Tong. The Design and Implementation of the Crowd Simulation System Based on the New Emotion Contagion Model[D]. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2016.
19	范春梅, 李华强, 贾建民. 食品安全事件中公众感知风险的动态变化—以问题奶粉为例[J]. 管理工程学报, 2013, 27(2): 17-22.
	Fan Chunmei, Li Huaqiang, Jia Jianmin. Dynamic Changes of Public's Perception of Risk in Food Safety Incidents—the Case of Milk Powder Incidents[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering Management, 2013, 27(2): 17-22.
20	谢晓非, 郑蕊, 谢东梅, 等. SARS中的心理恐慌现象分析[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 41(4): 628-639.
	Xie Xiaofei, Zheng Rui, Xie Dongmei, et al. Analysis on Psychological PanicPhenomenon of SARS[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2005, 41(4): 628-639.
21	王明贤, 邓秀梅, 罗贤运. 突发性水污染事件个体风险感知模型的构建[J]. 安全与环境工程, 2014, 21(6): 112-117.
	Wang Mingxian, Deng Xiumei, Luo Xianyun. Model Establishment of the Individual Risk Perception of Water Pollution Emergencies[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2014, 21(6): 112-117.
22	苏筠, 尹衍雨, 高立龙, 等. 影响公众震灾风险认知的因素分析—以新疆喀什、乌鲁木齐地区为例[J]. 西北地震学报, 2009, 31(1): 51-56.
	Su Jun, Yin Yanyu, Gao Lilong, et al. The Influencing Factors of Public Risk Perception of Earthquake Disasters: a Case in Kashgar and Urumqi, Xinjiang[J]. Northwestern Seismological Journal, 2009, 31(1): 51-56.
23	马国庆, 王小毅. 非常规突发事件中影响当事人状态的要素分析与数理描述[J]. 管理工程学报, 2009, 23(3): 126-130.
	Ma Guoqing, Wang Xiaoyi. The Mathematic Description of the Individual and Crowd Behavior under Unconventional Emergency[J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering Management, 2009, 23(3): 126-130.
24	国家技术监督局. 中国成年人人体尺寸: [S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 1989: 1-19.
	The State Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision. Human Dimensions of Chinese Adults: [S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1989: 1-19.
25	郭海湘, 曾杨, 陈卫明. 基于社会力模型的多出口室内应急疏散仿真研究[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(3): 721-731.
	Guo Haixiang, Zeng Yang, Chen Weiming. Research on Emergency Evacuation Simulation of Multi-exit Indoor Based on Social Force Model[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2021, 33(3): 721-731.
26	Hall J A, Matsumoto D. Gender Differences in Judgments of Multiple Emotions from Facial Expressions[J]. Emotion(S1528-3542), 2004, 4(2): 201.
27	黄履珺, 佘廉. 突发事件公众准备意愿的影响因素—基于实证数据的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(12): 146-157.
	Huang Lüjun, She Lian. Factors that Influence Emergency Events Public Preparedness Intention-Based on Empirical Research[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(12): 146-157.

人群类型	平均速度
青年女性	1.45
青年男性	1.51
中年女性	1.39
中年男性	1.47
老年人及未成年人	1.00

个性	积极影响	消极影响
探险性(O)	好奇心强、富有想象力	循规蹈矩
责任感(C)	认真、有组织	冲动、烦躁
外向性(E)	社交型、热情	孤僻
利他性(A)	友好的、无私的	咄咄逼人、自私
敏感度(N)	情绪稳定、冷静	焦虑、愤怒、自我

情绪值	情绪状态
[-1, 0]	冷静状态
(0, 0.5]	焦急状态
(0.5, 1]	恐慌状态

[1]	王治莹, 王伟康, 岳朝龙. 政府干预下多种舆情信息交互传播模型与仿真[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(5): 956-966.
[2]	狄岚, 顾雨迪. 媒体干预下三分意见群体网络舆情传播模型[J]. 系统仿真学报, 2018, 30(8): 2958-2965.

基于风险感知的室内疏散情绪传染与干预策略研究

Research on Emotional Contagion and Intervention Strategy of Indoor Evacuation Based on Risk Perception

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 18

参考文献 27

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价